***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 28.0 27.8 27.9 1.2 64.7 61.8 25.7 26.8 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 26.6 27.2 27.9 1.0 62.5 60.3 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 26.6 27.1 27.9 1.0 62.1 59.9 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 19.6 20.3 25.0 1.0 64.0 61.1 18.0 19.2 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 26.9 27.3 25.7 0.8 59.8 57.9 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 25.4 26.1 23.5 1.1 64.0 61.0 23.8 25.1 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 26.5 27.3 27.9 1.2 65.5 62.6 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 15.1 15.4 23.8 0.9 60.7 58.5 13.4 14.7 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 26.5 27.1 26.5 1.0 62.9 60.4 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 26.3 26.9 24.7 1.1 63.5 60.7 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 26.7 26.9 25.9 0.7 58.1 56.6 24.9 26.3 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 25.9 26.0 25.0 0.6 57.7 56.2 24.3 25.5 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 26.8 26.9 25.1 0.5 56.3 55.1 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 27.3 27.1 26.1 1.2 65.3 62.1 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 27.6 28.0 27.3 0.9 62.5 60.2 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 27.4 27.6 25.3 0.6 57.1 55.7 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.1 26.6 27.5 1.0 63.2 61.0 24.2 25.6 26.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 25.7 26.5 24.0 1.3 65.6 62.1 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 26.1 26.6 27.9 0.9 61.5 59.5 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 21.3 21.8 21.5 1.0 62.0 59.4 19.5 20.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 26.6 27.2 27.3 1.0 62.9 60.3 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 27.5 27.4 27.7 1.4 66.8 63.8 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 26.4 26.8 27.6 0.8 60.2 58.4 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 26.0 26.8 26.1 1.2 65.1 61.8 24.3 25.6 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 26.7 27.2 26.2 0.9 62.2 59.8 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 26.3 26.7 24.8 0.9 61.3 58.9 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 27.2 27.0 27.2 1.2 65.4 62.3 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 27.5 28.0 25.8 0.9 62.2 59.7 25.9 27.1 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 21.0 21.8 23.1 1.2 64.8 61.5 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 26.5 27.2 28.1 1.2 64.4 61.7 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------