***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 25.7 27.6 27.5 0.1 50.9 50.1 26.2 27.5 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 25.5 27.2 27.5 0.0 49.8 49.2 25.7 27.2 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 25.5 27.2 27.7 -0.1 49.3 48.9 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 18.3 20.0 25.0 -0.2 47.2 47.8 18.8 20.2 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 25.9 27.3 25.2 -0.4 44.5 45.5 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 24.6 26.4 23.1 0.0 50.5 50.5 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 25.4 27.1 27.5 0.1 51.3 50.6 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.5 23.7 -0.3 46.1 47.0 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 25.5 27.0 25.5 -0.3 46.7 47.1 25.7 27.3 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 25.2 26.8 24.3 -0.1 48.1 48.3 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 25.5 26.7 25.0 -0.5 43.5 44.8 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 24.7 25.9 25.0 -0.5 43.7 45.2 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 25.7 27.0 24.0 -0.4 44.4 46.0 26.0 27.5 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 25.5 27.1 25.3 -0.1 48.6 48.5 25.7 27.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 26.8 28.2 26.4 -0.2 47.5 48.3 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 26.2 27.6 24.6 -0.4 44.2 45.6 26.5 28.1 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 24.9 26.6 27.3 0.0 49.6 49.3 25.2 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 24.6 26.4 23.8 0.0 50.5 50.0 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 25.1 26.7 27.6 -0.1 48.9 48.5 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 20.4 22.1 21.2 -0.1 48.6 49.0 20.6 22.2 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 25.5 27.1 26.5 -0.2 47.3 47.7 25.9 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.3 27.4 0.2 52.4 51.3 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 25.3 26.8 27.4 -0.2 47.5 47.4 25.6 27.0 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 25.0 26.7 25.4 0.0 49.8 49.4 25.3 26.8 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 25.6 27.3 25.5 -0.1 48.3 48.5 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 27.7 27.1 25.0 0.0 49.8 50.2 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 25.3 27.1 26.6 0.1 51.4 50.7 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.7 28.2 25.4 -0.3 46.5 47.4 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.5 21.7 22.7 0.0 49.5 49.3 20.1 21.8 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 25.4 27.2 27.6 0.1 51.3 50.4 25.6 27.1 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------