***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 27.6 27.7 27.5 0.3 55.7 54.8 26.7 27.4 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 27.2 27.0 27.5 0.1 52.2 51.9 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 27.2 27.0 27.5 0.1 51.8 51.3 26.1 27.0 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 20.3 20.3 24.8 0.2 54.9 53.9 19.2 20.1 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 27.7 27.3 25.2 -0.1 47.8 48.0 26.5 27.4 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 26.2 26.4 23.1 0.4 57.8 56.0 25.2 26.0 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 27.0 27.0 27.5 0.3 55.6 54.8 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.4 23.4 -0.1 48.5 48.7 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 27.2 26.9 25.8 0.0 50.4 50.1 25.9 26.9 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 27.0 26.8 24.2 0.1 51.7 51.2 25.8 26.7 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 27.4 26.8 25.3 -0.3 45.1 45.8 26.2 27.1 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 26.5 25.9 24.7 -0.2 45.5 46.2 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 27.6 27.0 24.5 -0.2 45.4 46.1 26.4 27.3 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.8 25.4 0.1 51.2 50.9 25.9 26.7 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.2 26.9 0.2 54.5 53.7 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 28.2 27.7 24.9 -0.2 46.3 46.8 26.9 27.9 28.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 26.6 26.4 27.1 0.1 51.9 51.7 25.5 26.3 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 26.3 26.2 23.4 0.2 53.9 52.8 25.2 26.0 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 26.7 26.5 27.5 0.0 50.7 50.5 25.6 26.5 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 22.0 21.8 21.0 0.1 51.6 51.1 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 27.3 27.1 26.7 0.1 51.2 50.8 26.1 27.0 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 27.1 27.1 27.2 0.3 55.9 55.0 25.9 26.8 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 27.0 26.6 27.2 -0.1 47.8 48.1 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 26.6 26.5 25.4 0.1 52.6 51.7 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 27.4 27.3 25.8 0.2 53.0 52.4 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 27.1 27.1 24.7 0.2 54.2 53.4 26.0 26.9 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 26.9 27.0 26.7 0.4 57.1 55.9 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 28.4 28.2 25.5 0.1 52.9 52.3 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.6 21.5 22.5 0.1 52.9 52.0 20.4 21.3 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 27.0 27.0 27.6 0.3 55.0 54.2 25.9 26.8 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------