***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 23.6 27.9 24.0 133.4 73.9 69.1 6.4 12.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 29.0 37.1 26.7 166.8 80.5 73.5 10.0 16.6 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 31.5 40.5 25.5 155.6 78.5 70.8 7.9 15.7 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 29.6 36.6 24.4 145.7 76.6 70.4 9.5 16.8 26.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 21.6 25.8 22.5 134.8 74.1 65.5 7.1 12.8 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 25.2 30.2 25.9 151.9 78.2 72.2 8.1 13.9 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 24.2 28.1 25.1 154.4 78.3 73.4 7.9 13.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 30.5 39.4 32.3 163.3 80.1 71.9 10.5 17.6 26.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 23.1 27.8 25.3 144.0 76.2 70.1 5.8 11.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 25.3 32.5 32.4 156.8 79.0 71.1 7.5 13.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 14.1 23.6 22.8 134.7 74.2 65.3 7.1 12.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 12.3 22.0 22.2 140.8 75.5 65.7 5.4 10.1 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.1 19.5 18.6 120.2 70.3 59.3 5.6 10.5 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 25.6 34.2 33.9 171.9 81.6 73.9 8.1 14.0 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 17.1 24.4 21.3 158.5 78.9 69.4 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 10.8 17.0 19.2 127.3 72.2 62.8 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 29.1 38.7 26.7 170.5 81.1 74.0 8.5 15.4 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 24.9 32.5 34.1 163.9 80.3 72.4 7.6 13.5 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 31.9 42.6 27.0 170.0 81.1 73.0 10.2 17.7 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 23.5 27.5 28.0 136.9 74.6 64.3 6.9 12.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 24.7 28.3 23.6 142.0 75.8 70.0 8.1 14.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 27.1 35.6 25.7 163.2 79.7 70.4 9.8 16.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 23.9 32.6 26.4 168.2 80.9 72.0 7.1 13.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 28.3 37.0 30.4 162.3 80.0 72.2 8.5 15.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 47 53 100 22.4 25.8 23.7 127.3 72.5 67.3 7.1 13.1 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.0 19.7 16.1 125.7 71.7 60.7 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 23.5 26.4 24.9 131.5 73.4 68.5 6.1 12.0 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 18.7 24.9 24.0 154.8 78.2 70.3 5.5 10.4 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 33.5 43.3 32.9 163.7 80.5 72.7 10.9 18.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 32.2 38.5 25.8 157.4 78.8 72.7 11.4 18.6 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------