***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.3 19.5 21.1 111.2 67.0 52.8 5.9 11.4 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 8.2 20.5 17.4 100.8 63.1 50.2 7.6 13.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.5 21.4 20.4 104.0 64.1 51.7 5.8 12.6 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.4 20.4 20.1 106.7 66.1 52.2 5.1 11.1 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.1 23.2 21.5 116.2 69.0 55.2 5.4 11.5 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.5 19.0 21.6 106.6 65.0 52.7 6.0 11.6 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 25.3 23.6 18.7 116.4 68.4 55.9 7.0 13.5 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 22.8 25.5 19.7 101.3 63.3 48.8 9.4 17.2 27.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.7 22.4 22.6 115.6 68.3 52.5 6.8 12.6 20.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.9 30.8 23.2 112.3 67.6 51.3 9.8 18.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.4 19.0 20.3 109.1 66.2 51.9 5.6 11.0 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.5 12.9 17.0 98.1 62.9 49.2 4.5 8.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.2 14.7 18.3 93.9 61.8 49.2 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.2 28.4 22.5 99.3 62.7 50.5 12.0 20.2 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.9 14.9 19.6 117.2 69.9 53.8 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.9 14.5 17.9 96.1 62.3 49.7 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.5 13.1 16.0 101.4 63.4 52.0 4.7 8.6 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 19.4 22.5 98.4 62.6 47.8 7.7 13.6 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 19.3 20.8 17.6 98.1 62.0 49.6 6.8 13.7 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.3 18.3 21.5 96.8 61.4 50.2 7.4 13.3 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.0 19.3 22.0 112.3 67.4 52.7 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.0 14.1 15.9 96.5 61.2 50.6 5.3 10.1 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.0 17.1 18.6 100.7 62.9 51.3 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 26.8 30.2 22.2 102.1 63.7 49.8 11.9 20.7 32.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.9 22.9 23.7 115.3 68.3 55.4 6.8 12.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.2 16.4 90.3 59.6 48.3 4.4 9.3 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.1 24.3 22.8 111.8 67.0 53.2 8.4 14.8 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.8 16.7 18.9 110.3 67.6 51.4 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.8 22.3 22.9 93.5 59.3 47.3 8.9 16.7 27.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 7.5 19.8 18.5 101.9 63.4 51.3 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------