***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2020.-28.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.0 14.5 12.5 100.7 65.0 50.0 5.4 9.4 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.4 9.2 71.3 54.8 42.9 6.4 10.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.5 19.3 12.0 92.5 62.4 48.8 7.2 13.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.2 13.5 108.7 67.2 52.3 4.2 8.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.3 16.2 13.1 107.1 67.1 52.4 3.8 8.4 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.8 15.5 103.8 65.2 52.2 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.6 10.2 79.6 58.4 44.8 5.4 9.7 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.9 19.0 15.1 107.4 66.3 52.3 4.8 10.4 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.9 13.8 98.2 64.4 51.9 2.7 6.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.6 16.2 15.5 97.8 63.8 50.3 4.0 9.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.0 11.2 104.9 66.3 51.9 3.2 6.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.1 13.2 12.8 119.1 70.1 53.7 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.1 10.3 13.8 116.8 69.8 54.5 2.6 5.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 19.7 20.9 16.0 88.3 60.7 48.5 9.0 15.5 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.8 10.0 12.0 119.6 70.5 47.8 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.5 12.9 112.8 68.8 53.4 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.6 13.3 9.1 71.5 55.9 43.4 6.1 11.1 17.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.8 16.0 18.4 101.0 64.4 51.6 4.6 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.1 10.0 76.3 56.6 44.8 6.7 11.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.9 14.7 19.5 113.7 67.8 55.7 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.7 17.3 13.0 100.4 65.0 51.9 5.2 10.2 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.0 13.4 10.1 72.3 56.5 45.1 6.5 11.3 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.6 11.5 86.0 60.3 48.3 7.3 13.6 22.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 21.4 23.2 14.7 90.9 61.5 49.8 9.3 16.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.5 15.6 13.9 104.8 66.1 52.3 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.3 11.7 11.1 115.2 69.5 50.7 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.2 16.4 14.0 102.5 65.4 50.9 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.4 8.9 14.0 120.8 70.7 51.6 2.9 5.0 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.7 22.9 19.4 104.6 65.0 52.5 7.9 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.5 9.7 75.6 56.2 43.7 9.3 13.7 18.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------