***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 5.8 12.8 9.2 72.5 55.6 40.8 6.1 10.9 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 5.4 11.3 7.9 69.9 54.0 39.5 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.2 10.2 10.0 76.7 57.3 41.1 4.5 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.5 10.8 10.8 81.1 60.4 42.8 3.4 7.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.6 10.1 10.5 81.6 60.6 42.0 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.1 12.3 14.5 99.7 65.5 48.1 3.8 7.5 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 3.8 10.3 8.3 71.4 54.8 39.4 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.6 21.2 13.3 89.3 61.4 45.7 7.3 14.5 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.6 7.9 11.1 77.8 58.8 41.8 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 6.9 15.8 13.5 82.7 59.2 43.5 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.1 11.7 10.3 90.6 63.3 43.7 4.1 7.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.2 14.4 10.7 92.5 63.7 44.5 5.4 9.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.7 11.8 98.3 65.8 46.2 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 6.3 15.4 13.3 74.2 55.5 40.0 6.6 12.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.0 11.1 9.2 83.4 62.1 43.8 2.4 6.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.1 10.1 11.1 94.5 64.9 45.4 2.6 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.9 10.2 7.7 71.2 54.8 41.4 3.8 8.4 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.5 14.2 14.9 79.0 56.2 42.7 6.2 11.7 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.5 9.9 8.3 69.4 53.9 39.2 4.4 8.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 17.4 15.9 90.4 59.9 48.2 7.7 13.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.9 11.1 10.1 73.7 56.7 41.0 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.1 10.1 8.2 69.8 54.1 40.5 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.3 9.2 70.7 55.0 38.8 4.8 9.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.8 13.7 12.5 77.3 56.5 41.1 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.1 9.4 10.0 70.6 55.2 40.9 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.9 9.3 101.0 66.9 45.9 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 6.7 13.3 9.2 67.1 53.1 39.2 7.0 12.1 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.9 9.6 11.1 87.3 62.8 44.5 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.1 18.6 15.5 80.0 56.0 44.3 7.7 15.1 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 6.4 13.0 8.3 71.1 54.4 38.5 6.8 11.5 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------