***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 70.1 74.6 66.9 107.6 62.7 55.9 47.8 62.4 78.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 75.1 79.6 61.2 106.4 62.1 56.7 54.7 68.5 83.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 82.6 90.2 67.9 109.5 63.8 56.8 57.8 74.5 92.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 70.5 82.4 68.8 112.2 65.4 57.7 44.7 62.5 83.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 66.2 76.4 67.7 112.0 65.3 56.4 43.3 59.3 77.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 58.4 69.1 77.6 116.1 67.8 60.8 38.0 51.5 67.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 68.9 76.1 62.2 109.8 64.0 58.5 48.4 62.7 78.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 93.7 110.3 80.3 117.5 68.3 59.5 62.9 83.6 106.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 60.6 69.6 72.8 111.2 64.8 55.9 38.9 54.0 71.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 84.3 97.0 84.6 115.1 67.0 57.8 58.0 76.0 95.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 60.8 68.8 64.8 112.1 65.3 56.4 41.3 54.6 69.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 53.9 62.4 62.7 113.2 66.0 57.1 31.7 46.0 62.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 49.8 53.7 62.5 106.4 62.2 54.7 32.0 43.8 57.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 93.4 100.3 85.8 109.3 63.6 56.0 67.9 85.1 103.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 46.9 62.9 62.1 121.4 69.6 59.5 25.0 39.7 57.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 47.6 51.5 61.1 107.5 62.9 55.7 31.2 41.9 54.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 67.6 74.2 59.6 108.2 63.1 56.7 41.5 58.8 78.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 74.1 83.3 89.8 111.1 64.7 56.7 48.9 65.9 85.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 79.8 84.6 62.9 106.8 62.2 56.4 55.6 71.7 89.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 71.4 78.9 85.0 109.5 63.5 56.3 48.5 64.4 81.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 68.7 76.8 68.8 109.3 63.8 55.9 48.2 62.8 79.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 69.0 71.1 59.8 103.5 60.1 53.3 45.3 60.7 78.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 76.5 81.1 65.7 108.5 63.2 56.5 56.1 69.7 83.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 96.9 104.3 79.8 109.5 63.7 56.1 70.8 88.2 107.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 67.0 72.2 71.2 107.1 62.4 55.6 45.3 60.0 76.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 49.9 54.5 53.0 106.3 62.3 55.6 29.1 42.6 59.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 76.8 80.8 70.9 106.3 61.8 55.1 52.1 68.3 85.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 48.8 59.1 68.1 119.2 68.6 59.6 32.0 43.5 56.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 101.1 109.8 90.6 109.6 63.7 56.5 72.6 92.2 113.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 80.1 84.0 62.3 105.4 61.4 56.1 60.7 74.0 88.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------