***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.8 17.5 1.2 70.0 68.8 13.9 14.8 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 15.9 16.3 18.0 1.8 78.4 76.9 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 17.4 17.5 17.5 1.4 73.3 72.1 14.8 16.0 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 12.5 12.7 15.0 1.1 69.8 68.0 9.9 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 13.9 14.2 15.6 1.5 76.0 73.9 12.0 12.9 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 12.8 13.0 13.3 1.4 75.5 73.5 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 16.1 16.4 18.2 1.9 80.0 78.6 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.1 13.2 1.4 72.7 71.4 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 14.9 15.0 15.8 1.2 71.0 69.9 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 14.9 15.2 14.3 1.6 76.4 75.0 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 14.7 15.0 15.2 1.6 77.0 75.3 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 12.6 12.7 13.8 1.2 71.6 70.2 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 14.3 14.7 14.2 1.6 79.8 77.9 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 15.8 16.0 16.1 1.6 77.2 76.0 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 15.8 15.9 16.4 1.1 70.5 69.2 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 15.3 15.7 14.9 1.6 78.5 76.3 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 16.3 16.8 17.8 1.9 80.7 79.1 13.8 14.8 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 13.7 14.0 13.4 1.7 79.1 77.7 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 15.6 15.8 17.7 1.6 76.0 74.6 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 9.3 9.6 11.2 1.7 78.6 77.0 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.1 17.1 1.3 72.0 70.9 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 15.3 15.7 17.7 1.9 80.2 78.8 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 15.0 15.1 17.2 1.4 72.7 71.2 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 15.4 15.7 15.8 1.7 77.7 76.4 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.0 16.2 1.2 69.5 68.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.6 13.1 1.1 70.4 68.8 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 15.3 15.4 16.8 1.2 70.4 69.3 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.0 15.8 1.3 72.9 71.1 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 12.5 13.2 13.3 2.2 84.1 82.4 9.5 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 16.0 16.3 18.1 1.7 77.0 75.6 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------