***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 13.7 14.6 16.8 0.0 50.0 49.9 13.9 14.6 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 12.9 14.1 16.9 0.0 50.3 50.2 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.8 16.6 -0.1 48.7 49.2 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.3 14.5 -0.4 38.7 42.8 9.9 11.0 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 11.7 12.3 14.4 -0.3 41.5 45.1 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.4 12.7 -0.3 43.6 46.0 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 13.1 14.3 17.0 0.0 50.9 50.6 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.3 12.5 -0.2 46.0 48.1 5.5 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 13.0 13.7 14.7 -0.2 44.2 46.8 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.6 13.2 -0.2 45.1 47.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.5 14.0 -0.3 43.5 46.6 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.4 13.5 -0.2 44.3 46.8 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.8 13.1 -0.3 42.1 44.9 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.3 14.8 -0.1 46.6 48.4 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 14.0 14.6 15.1 -0.4 38.5 42.4 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.7 13.8 -0.3 42.5 45.6 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 13.5 14.6 16.6 -0.1 47.7 48.3 13.7 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.2 12.5 -0.1 46.0 47.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.2 16.8 0.0 49.2 49.4 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.0 10.7 -0.1 47.1 48.5 7.3 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 12.9 13.6 15.8 -0.2 45.3 47.1 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.6 16.4 -0.2 46.1 47.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.5 16.4 -0.1 47.2 48.1 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.9 14.6 -0.1 46.5 48.3 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.5 13.2 15.1 -0.3 42.9 45.0 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 11.8 12.4 13.3 -0.2 44.9 46.9 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 12.3 13.3 15.9 -0.1 47.1 47.8 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 11.9 12.4 14.9 -0.4 39.6 43.6 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.5 11.8 -0.2 46.1 47.6 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.4 17.0 0.1 51.3 50.9 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------