***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.3 17.4 0.4 63.8 61.7 14.7 15.0 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.3 17.6 0.5 66.9 64.3 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 16.6 16.9 17.3 0.4 63.1 61.1 15.8 16.4 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.8 15.2 0.1 53.0 52.3 11.0 11.7 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.6 15.2 0.3 60.2 58.0 12.7 13.3 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.5 13.4 0.2 58.6 56.8 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 15.4 15.5 17.8 0.6 68.7 65.7 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.7 13.2 0.3 60.6 58.4 6.7 7.3 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.8 15.5 0.3 59.6 57.7 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.7 13.9 0.4 62.5 60.1 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.6 14.8 0.3 62.4 59.7 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.4 14.1 0.2 58.4 56.7 11.6 12.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.9 13.9 0.3 60.0 58.1 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.4 15.6 0.4 62.2 60.1 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.5 15.9 0.0 49.8 49.8 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.9 14.6 0.3 60.5 58.2 13.9 14.6 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 15.8 15.8 17.3 0.5 67.1 64.2 14.7 15.2 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.4 13.2 0.4 64.3 61.8 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 15.2 15.1 17.4 0.5 64.5 62.2 14.1 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.2 11.4 0.4 65.8 62.4 8.2 8.7 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.7 16.6 0.3 61.5 59.4 13.8 14.3 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 14.4 14.8 17.2 0.5 65.2 62.7 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.5 17.0 0.3 60.5 58.6 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.1 15.3 0.4 63.3 61.0 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.5 15.8 0.2 58.5 57.0 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.4 13.8 0.2 56.7 55.4 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.6 16.6 0.4 61.8 59.9 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.5 15.6 0.1 52.8 52.1 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.0 12.7 0.5 67.8 64.8 10.7 11.4 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.5 17.7 0.5 66.8 64.2 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------