***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 28.7 29.4 28.6 2.0 76.5 74.1 25.1 26.7 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 28.4 28.9 28.9 2.3 78.0 75.7 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 28.0 28.5 28.4 1.8 73.5 71.3 24.7 26.3 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 19.9 20.8 25.4 1.0 65.0 63.2 18.2 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 27.1 28.2 26.0 1.1 65.3 63.5 25.2 26.8 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 25.6 25.6 22.6 0.3 53.9 53.2 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 28.0 28.6 28.8 2.3 78.2 75.8 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.5 23.5 0.7 59.4 58.2 13.2 14.7 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 27.6 27.8 27.1 1.4 69.1 67.1 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 26.3 27.2 24.9 1.0 64.1 62.5 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 26.9 27.6 25.4 0.9 62.2 60.7 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 25.8 26.1 24.4 0.6 58.3 57.1 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 26.9 26.9 24.1 0.3 53.9 53.3 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 27.4 27.7 26.6 1.6 69.8 67.8 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 27.7 28.8 27.3 1.1 67.2 65.2 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 27.6 28.0 24.9 0.6 59.1 57.9 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 27.7 28.4 28.6 2.3 78.3 76.0 24.2 25.7 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 25.8 26.7 24.0 1.1 64.5 62.9 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 27.7 28.3 28.7 2.2 76.7 74.4 24.2 25.7 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 21.3 21.8 21.4 0.7 59.2 58.1 19.4 21.0 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 28.0 28.2 28.1 1.6 70.9 68.9 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 28.1 28.8 28.3 2.2 77.5 75.1 24.6 26.1 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 27.9 28.3 28.2 1.9 74.0 71.8 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 27.0 27.2 26.3 1.4 67.7 65.9 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 28.3 28.5 26.9 1.6 71.6 69.5 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 26.6 26.3 23.2 0.0 50.3 50.0 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 28.0 28.3 27.8 1.8 74.5 72.2 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 27.8 28.6 26.0 0.9 64.2 62.4 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 21.0 21.9 23.0 1.0 63.1 61.6 18.9 20.6 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 28.1 28.5 28.9 2.2 77.6 75.2 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------