***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 25.6 27.1 27.3 0.1 52.2 53.1 25.8 26.9 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 26.9 26.3 27.3 0.0 50.6 51.7 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 24.5 26.2 27.2 0.0 50.1 51.7 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 17.9 19.0 25.4 -0.4 43.5 46.1 18.2 19.4 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 25.0 26.3 25.4 -0.2 45.9 48.2 25.3 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.0 23.2 -0.2 45.9 48.0 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 26.7 26.2 27.3 0.1 51.5 52.5 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 13.3 14.6 23.7 -0.1 47.5 49.4 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 24.5 26.0 25.7 -0.1 47.6 49.6 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 24.6 26.0 24.4 -0.1 48.1 49.8 24.9 26.1 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 24.8 26.2 24.8 -0.2 46.7 48.9 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 26.2 25.3 24.6 -0.2 45.9 48.4 24.4 25.6 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.0 23.9 -0.4 43.3 46.5 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 24.3 26.1 25.4 0.0 49.3 50.9 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 25.8 26.7 25.9 -0.5 41.4 44.3 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 27.8 26.7 24.5 -0.3 44.5 47.2 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 24.1 25.6 26.9 -0.1 48.6 49.7 24.3 25.7 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 23.8 25.5 23.7 0.0 50.4 51.3 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 24.1 25.7 27.2 0.0 49.9 51.2 24.3 25.7 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 21.6 21.0 21.7 0.0 50.8 51.4 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 24.6 26.2 26.6 -0.1 48.3 50.3 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 24.4 25.8 26.7 -0.2 46.6 48.1 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 24.4 26.0 26.8 -0.1 48.8 50.6 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 24.1 25.7 25.3 0.0 49.6 51.0 24.4 25.7 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 24.7 26.2 25.6 -0.1 47.7 49.3 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 26.5 25.6 23.9 -0.4 43.9 46.8 24.8 26.1 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 24.3 26.0 26.4 0.0 50.6 51.7 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 25.8 26.7 25.6 -0.4 42.4 45.1 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 19.1 20.8 22.7 0.1 51.0 51.7 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 24.4 26.2 27.4 0.1 51.5 52.5 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------