***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.0 28.3 28.5 0.8 61.3 57.6 26.2 27.5 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 27.8 28.1 28.6 0.8 61.7 57.6 26.0 27.2 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 27.8 28.1 28.5 0.7 60.0 56.9 26.0 27.3 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 20.6 20.3 26.6 0.1 51.8 50.7 18.8 20.1 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 28.2 28.2 26.7 0.4 55.8 53.8 26.3 27.7 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.8 24.5 0.3 54.5 53.4 25.1 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 27.6 28.0 28.6 0.9 63.0 58.4 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.6 25.2 0.6 58.8 56.1 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 27.7 27.9 27.0 0.5 57.6 55.3 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 27.5 27.7 25.7 0.6 58.6 56.0 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 27.7 27.8 26.2 0.5 56.9 54.7 25.8 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 26.9 27.0 26.2 0.5 57.5 55.3 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.0 25.5 0.3 54.4 53.1 26.1 27.6 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 27.6 28.0 26.7 0.8 61.5 58.1 25.8 27.1 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.1 27.0 -0.2 46.7 47.1 27.2 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 28.6 28.5 26.0 0.3 54.6 53.2 26.6 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.1 27.4 28.3 0.8 61.1 57.1 25.3 26.6 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 26.8 27.2 25.1 0.8 60.9 57.8 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.3 27.6 28.5 0.8 61.0 57.3 25.6 26.8 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 22.7 23.2 23.2 0.8 61.5 58.0 20.7 22.2 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 27.8 28.0 27.8 0.6 58.1 55.5 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.8 28.1 0.7 59.5 56.1 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.9 28.2 0.8 60.5 57.2 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 27.2 27.6 26.6 0.7 60.4 57.4 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.0 26.8 0.4 56.6 54.1 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.7 25.6 0.4 55.4 53.8 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.8 27.6 0.7 60.1 56.6 25.7 27.0 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 28.9 28.4 26.8 0.0 49.5 49.1 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.7 24.1 0.8 61.4 58.2 20.2 21.7 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 27.6 28.0 28.7 0.8 61.8 57.8 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------