***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 29.5 29.2 28.6 0.2 52.6 50.8 28.0 29.0 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 27.2 28.7 28.7 0.2 53.9 51.4 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.6 28.6 0.1 51.6 50.0 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 19.8 21.1 26.8 -0.4 44.0 44.3 20.1 21.6 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.0 26.9 -0.1 48.0 47.3 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 26.0 27.3 24.6 -0.2 46.9 46.4 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.6 28.6 0.3 54.9 52.4 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.9 25.3 0.1 51.3 49.8 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.5 27.1 0.0 49.6 48.6 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.4 25.9 0.0 50.6 49.3 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.5 26.4 0.0 49.4 48.3 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.7 26.3 0.0 50.1 49.0 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 27.3 28.6 25.6 -0.2 46.6 46.4 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 26.7 28.2 26.7 0.1 52.1 50.2 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 27.8 28.8 27.2 -0.6 39.8 41.1 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 27.8 29.2 26.2 -0.2 47.0 46.5 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.4 27.9 28.2 0.2 53.1 51.1 26.6 27.7 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.7 25.1 0.1 52.1 50.5 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 26.7 28.2 28.7 0.2 53.0 50.6 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.7 23.4 23.1 0.2 53.1 51.3 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.7 28.0 0.0 49.7 48.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 26.9 28.3 28.1 0.1 51.0 49.3 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 26.9 28.3 28.3 0.1 52.0 49.8 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.4 28.0 26.7 0.1 51.4 49.9 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 27.2 28.5 26.9 -0.2 47.6 47.2 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 26.9 28.2 25.7 -0.2 46.5 46.4 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 26.9 28.2 27.7 0.0 50.7 49.5 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 27.7 28.9 27.0 -0.5 42.2 42.8 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.3 22.9 24.1 0.2 52.5 50.9 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.0 28.4 28.8 0.2 53.8 51.4 27.2 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------