***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 28.2 28.3 28.2 0.8 69.1 64.8 26.8 27.5 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 27.9 28.0 28.3 0.9 68.7 64.5 26.2 27.1 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 28.0 27.9 28.2 0.7 66.3 62.4 26.2 27.1 27.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 20.5 20.3 26.1 0.1 52.7 51.5 19.3 20.2 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.0 26.2 0.3 57.7 55.3 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.2 23.7 0.0 50.9 50.3 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 27.7 27.8 28.3 0.9 70.0 65.5 26.0 26.9 27.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.0 24.4 0.3 58.5 55.5 14.7 15.6 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 27.3 27.7 26.7 0.4 62.1 58.6 26.1 27.0 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.4 25.2 0.4 60.7 57.3 26.0 26.8 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.6 25.7 0.3 57.8 55.1 26.3 27.2 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 26.6 26.6 25.4 0.2 56.0 53.8 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 26.4 27.4 24.8 0.0 49.7 49.3 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 27.1 27.6 26.4 0.6 65.8 61.5 26.0 26.8 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.1 26.8 0.0 48.8 48.5 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 28.4 28.2 25.4 0.1 53.0 51.7 27.1 28.0 28.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 27.3 27.3 28.0 0.8 67.4 63.4 25.6 26.4 27.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.9 24.5 0.5 63.6 59.5 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 26.8 27.4 28.3 0.8 67.7 63.5 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.4 22.3 0.4 62.0 57.9 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 27.5 27.9 27.6 0.5 63.5 59.9 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 27.2 27.7 27.8 0.7 65.3 61.5 26.0 26.9 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 27.1 27.6 27.9 0.7 66.1 62.1 26.0 26.9 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.8 27.2 26.2 0.5 64.2 60.3 25.6 26.5 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 27.6 27.9 26.5 0.4 61.4 58.6 26.4 27.3 28.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 26.0 26.9 24.6 0.0 48.7 48.4 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 27.1 27.6 27.3 0.6 66.3 62.5 26.0 26.8 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.2 26.4 0.0 50.0 49.4 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.8 22.2 23.5 0.5 63.9 59.6 20.5 21.4 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 27.1 27.8 28.5 0.8 69.2 64.8 26.0 26.9 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------