***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 5.5 5.8 7.6 39.6 32.9 28.3 5.8 11.8 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 9.0 9.3 6.5 35.3 30.6 26.6 10.0 15.7 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 7.4 8.8 8.7 46.3 37.9 32.5 6.8 14.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 8.3 13.8 11.9 65.0 47.8 40.5 8.1 14.6 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.3 9.7 12.1 61.2 45.9 39.2 6.1 11.2 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 15.3 16.8 17.8 94.5 60.4 54.0 6.9 12.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 5.3 5.3 5.7 31.8 28.0 24.6 6.6 11.5 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.8 17.8 15.3 77.8 52.6 45.4 10.2 16.5 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 5.2 9.2 12.5 64.4 47.0 39.9 5.0 10.5 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 8.1 14.1 14.8 70.2 49.1 42.0 7.8 14.5 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.2 10.5 11.7 66.6 47.8 41.0 6.1 11.3 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.3 10.9 13.2 79.7 54.4 46.3 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.4 11.0 14.8 81.5 54.7 47.5 4.7 9.4 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.9 10.6 12.3 58.6 42.2 36.4 7.6 13.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.7 6.8 10.9 65.6 47.8 38.0 3.4 7.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.2 9.0 12.9 74.1 51.2 45.0 4.7 8.6 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 6.8 7.2 6.0 32.6 30.5 26.1 7.9 13.7 21.4 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.0 12.7 16.4 74.0 50.4 42.0 6.9 12.6 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.4 7.3 38.6 32.4 28.2 10.7 17.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 17.1 13.8 17.4 81.8 52.3 45.0 6.9 12.7 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.2 10.5 10.0 54.2 43.2 36.8 7.3 12.9 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 8.3 9.4 6.9 37.2 32.6 27.4 9.6 14.9 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.5 7.7 8.6 44.0 34.2 30.2 7.5 12.6 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 7.7 12.2 12.9 62.6 45.3 38.1 7.8 14.3 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 6.7 8.4 10.7 51.1 37.7 33.3 6.9 12.7 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.7 10.2 13.3 79.3 54.1 48.1 3.9 8.6 16.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 5.8 6.1 8.9 42.6 32.4 28.8 6.3 12.3 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.8 9.9 11.9 68.6 49.7 41.8 5.1 10.1 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.2 18.6 17.3 80.3 52.7 43.6 9.7 17.2 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 9.6 10.0 6.8 36.3 30.6 26.6 10.8 17.4 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------