***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 6.6 19.8 12.4 99.6 64.9 47.4 6.0 12.0 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.9 18.9 13.4 94.1 62.5 48.0 6.1 12.3 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 8.7 24.8 14.3 106.5 66.2 49.7 7.8 14.9 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.9 24.5 16.2 117.6 69.2 49.2 5.7 12.2 21.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.8 26.7 17.4 120.7 70.5 51.0 5.8 12.6 22.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.6 23.6 25.6 124.5 71.2 55.6 5.9 11.6 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.5 20.3 13.4 93.3 61.9 47.9 7.6 14.2 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 22.7 34.7 21.4 131.3 72.6 57.6 9.0 17.1 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 18.8 25.5 18.3 119.1 70.0 49.5 8.3 14.4 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 22.5 32.7 22.1 125.7 71.1 55.0 8.8 16.7 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.0 27.3 16.9 135.5 74.2 56.7 5.6 11.7 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.3 19.3 16.7 132.7 73.6 55.3 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.8 21.7 20.3 127.2 72.1 54.8 4.9 10.1 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.4 33.2 19.1 115.3 68.6 53.5 11.1 19.5 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.3 16.4 14.3 124.9 71.5 50.4 2.8 6.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.6 20.0 18.6 129.4 72.7 55.0 4.9 9.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.3 14.4 12.8 88.7 61.3 47.3 5.4 10.0 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 22.9 24.7 114.9 67.6 53.3 6.8 13.1 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.7 22.2 13.6 99.7 64.2 48.5 6.6 13.6 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.9 20.6 25.0 110.6 65.9 53.8 7.4 13.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 17.1 22.3 14.5 111.8 68.1 48.4 6.7 12.5 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.8 16.6 13.4 98.0 63.6 47.8 5.0 10.4 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 17.0 21.6 14.6 109.9 67.2 49.6 6.7 12.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.9 36.4 20.4 116.1 68.5 53.2 12.3 21.6 33.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 7.5 20.0 15.0 97.1 62.6 46.1 7.2 13.4 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.7 23.8 17.6 141.3 75.6 55.8 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.8 22.2 14.3 93.9 62.0 46.3 8.6 15.6 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.2 17.6 16.8 129.4 72.7 52.4 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.1 30.9 24.7 114.8 67.6 54.4 9.3 17.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.7 18.4 13.5 98.1 63.8 48.6 6.2 11.8 19.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------