***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.06.2014.-29.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.7 9.8 93.2 63.7 50.3 5.1 8.4 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.4 14.1 9.8 87.1 60.1 47.3 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.8 9.5 85.8 59.9 49.6 7.6 12.8 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.0 12.8 95.3 63.6 49.8 4.5 8.4 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.4 13.4 12.3 88.1 61.7 49.2 4.2 8.7 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.9 17.3 87.6 61.0 50.8 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.7 12.2 10.0 86.3 60.5 47.6 5.7 9.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.0 16.4 14.9 81.8 58.1 47.9 6.0 12.4 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.0 12.4 84.6 60.7 49.3 3.3 6.9 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.5 15.9 84.5 59.3 49.0 4.4 9.6 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.4 12.3 88.2 62.3 50.3 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.0 10.8 78.7 58.7 46.9 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.9 12.2 80.5 59.5 48.9 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.2 18.3 13.4 84.8 58.7 50.0 8.3 14.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.5 7.4 12.8 107.0 67.2 50.8 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.9 13.0 93.7 64.0 51.4 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.6 9.7 82.9 58.6 45.1 6.3 10.8 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.3 13.7 18.0 83.1 56.7 47.7 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.4 9.4 86.5 60.1 48.3 6.6 10.5 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 11.2 17.3 75.6 53.2 45.7 5.7 10.1 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.7 9.8 83.2 60.1 48.8 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.5 10.3 88.8 60.9 46.9 4.8 9.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 17.4 18.0 9.4 83.4 59.7 49.6 8.1 13.7 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 20.8 20.1 14.1 84.2 58.0 49.2 9.4 16.0 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.6 12.9 87.6 61.3 49.7 5.5 9.2 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.1 9.8 81.8 59.7 48.3 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.0 12.9 12.7 93.0 63.5 50.9 4.8 8.6 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.7 7.3 13.7 104.9 66.9 51.6 2.5 4.4 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.5 19.1 17.8 83.2 57.0 48.1 8.9 15.5 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.4 18.6 9.9 90.3 61.4 49.0 9.6 14.6 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------