***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 5.9 15.1 7.2 82.9 60.7 39.7 6.0 10.9 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 6.0 16.3 8.6 102.7 65.2 44.9 6.2 10.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.0 12.8 7.6 89.3 61.8 43.5 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.4 12.3 8.7 85.2 61.9 42.7 4.4 8.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.8 7.4 73.1 57.8 40.5 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.4 11.5 13.0 103.8 66.8 45.7 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.8 15.7 9.2 103.8 65.9 45.5 4.9 9.4 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 6.4 16.3 8.4 75.8 57.3 40.1 7.2 13.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.2 7.9 6.4 63.0 54.2 38.5 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.0 13.0 8.5 69.5 55.7 39.5 5.5 10.6 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.1 10.0 7.6 87.1 62.5 42.3 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.8 10.5 6.6 83.2 60.6 41.0 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.5 7.7 8.5 93.0 63.9 45.0 2.5 4.8 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.4 18.4 9.8 83.9 60.2 42.5 6.9 13.2 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.2 14.3 8.5 102.5 67.1 44.0 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.8 8.4 94.9 65.0 44.5 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.7 13.3 7.9 94.8 62.8 44.9 3.8 8.1 15.0 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.5 13.0 10.5 72.4 55.8 39.6 5.5 10.7 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.5 14.7 8.3 104.0 65.8 44.4 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 6.8 14.6 10.3 72.4 54.6 41.1 7.5 12.9 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.7 11.9 6.0 66.9 56.1 39.0 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.6 15.3 8.7 107.4 66.9 45.3 4.4 8.9 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.6 16.4 8.3 102.5 66.0 44.3 5.0 9.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.0 15.2 9.7 83.6 60.1 42.1 5.8 11.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.4 8.7 79.0 58.9 42.9 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.8 5.5 78.8 58.7 41.2 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.0 17.7 9.3 88.2 61.8 42.2 7.1 12.6 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.9 11.3 9.2 100.8 66.8 43.3 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.1 17.1 11.1 72.4 55.6 40.2 7.2 14.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 6.2 15.7 8.6 102.3 65.3 44.5 6.4 10.6 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------