***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.06.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-06.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 45.0 54.4 36.9 72.8 41.5 38.4 47.5 61.7 77.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 52.0 59.4 38.2 73.3 40.8 37.6 53.4 66.7 80.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 56.6 68.2 40.1 77.2 44.1 40.5 57.8 73.8 90.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 39.3 63.0 49.5 89.0 52.1 44.3 43.2 60.4 80.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 39.5 56.3 49.2 84.4 48.6 42.1 41.8 57.4 75.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 56.1 58.4 73.7 102.8 60.0 52.2 35.2 48.7 64.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 45.5 53.0 38.3 72.6 40.3 37.3 47.6 61.0 75.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 59.5 81.9 60.0 91.6 51.4 45.2 59.7 80.3 103.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 37.2 52.4 49.6 83.2 47.6 41.6 39.6 54.5 71.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 55.2 74.5 61.3 87.7 49.0 43.5 57.6 75.6 95.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 60.4 55.9 48.5 91.9 53.9 46.9 39.1 52.7 68.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 53.0 48.5 47.3 93.0 54.1 45.8 30.5 44.5 61.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 49.0 46.9 55.7 95.5 55.9 47.4 30.6 42.5 55.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 63.5 79.5 54.5 83.8 46.4 41.7 66.3 83.6 101.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 24.8 45.3 46.4 96.2 57.2 47.8 24.2 38.2 55.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 47.4 46.7 52.9 96.9 57.0 48.6 30.8 41.7 54.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 38.5 46.8 36.4 69.0 39.9 36.9 40.8 56.6 75.3 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 46.7 63.1 69.6 87.0 47.3 42.3 48.8 65.8 85.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 52.9 62.4 38.6 75.0 42.2 38.5 54.9 69.2 84.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 46.5 60.5 70.0 86.4 45.7 42.0 48.5 64.8 82.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 44.5 58.1 40.4 77.0 44.8 40.3 47.8 62.8 79.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 41.3 52.8 39.3 75.8 43.6 39.5 44.0 58.5 74.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 53.8 64.5 40.9 78.2 44.4 39.9 56.1 68.8 82.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 65.4 83.9 57.2 85.6 47.7 42.5 68.4 86.4 106.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 42.5 52.4 47.3 76.2 42.6 39.2 44.7 58.8 74.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 50.5 48.3 46.2 95.9 56.5 47.7 28.6 42.1 58.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 50.0 60.4 45.2 74.7 41.7 38.6 52.8 67.9 84.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 30.1 48.4 51.6 98.1 58.0 48.3 31.4 42.5 55.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 69.1 88.9 70.9 88.7 48.3 43.2 71.2 90.9 112.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 56.9 64.7 38.8 74.7 41.6 38.3 58.4 70.8 83.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------