***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 13.5 15.2 -1.2 28.6 30.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 12.9 13.0 15.1 -1.3 28.6 30.1 13.3 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 14.8 14.7 15.1 -1.2 28.1 29.7 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 9.2 9.4 13.2 -1.4 25.3 26.7 10.0 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 11.6 11.7 13.2 -1.3 24.7 26.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 10.6 10.6 10.8 -1.4 23.0 24.6 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 13.1 13.3 15.1 -1.3 27.6 29.2 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 4.9 4.9 10.6 -1.5 22.9 24.8 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 12.9 12.7 13.6 -1.4 24.2 26.4 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 12.5 12.4 11.7 -1.4 24.0 26.0 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 12.4 12.5 12.6 -1.4 23.5 25.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 10.3 10.4 11.4 -1.5 22.0 24.0 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 12.1 12.1 11.6 -1.3 23.5 25.3 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 13.1 13.2 13.4 -1.4 25.1 27.0 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 13.7 13.9 14.8 -1.2 27.1 28.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 12.6 12.6 12.3 -1.3 23.4 25.1 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 13.6 13.7 14.9 -1.2 30.0 31.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 11.2 11.1 10.8 -1.4 23.3 25.3 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 13.2 13.3 15.0 -1.3 28.4 29.9 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 6.7 6.7 8.4 -1.5 22.5 24.3 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 12.7 12.6 14.7 -1.4 25.0 26.9 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 12.8 13.0 14.7 -1.3 28.7 30.0 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 12.9 12.8 14.8 -1.3 28.1 29.5 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 12.6 12.6 13.1 -1.3 25.4 27.2 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 12.4 12.5 14.1 -1.4 23.9 25.5 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 11.3 11.4 11.1 -1.2 24.3 25.6 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 12.5 12.6 14.6 -1.2 26.8 28.5 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 11.7 11.8 13.8 -1.3 25.8 27.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 8.9 8.9 9.9 -1.5 23.0 24.7 9.7 10.8 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 13.2 13.4 15.2 -1.3 28.1 29.6 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------