***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 13.7 16.0 -0.7 35.1 39.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 12.9 13.0 15.8 -1.1 27.8 33.0 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 14.6 15.0 15.9 -0.7 33.9 37.8 15.0 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 9.7 10.0 14.2 -0.8 31.8 36.6 10.1 11.2 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 11.6 11.9 13.9 -0.8 30.9 36.3 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 10.8 11.2 12.3 -0.5 36.1 39.8 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 13.1 13.3 15.8 -1.1 28.5 33.4 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.3 5.6 11.9 -0.8 31.4 37.0 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 12.9 13.2 14.2 -0.8 30.9 36.2 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 12.8 13.0 12.6 -0.8 31.4 36.6 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 12.8 13.1 13.5 -0.7 33.2 38.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 10.7 11.0 12.9 -0.7 32.9 38.2 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 12.2 12.5 12.5 -0.6 33.4 38.4 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 13.2 13.5 14.1 -1.0 28.9 33.7 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.5 15.1 -0.6 35.6 38.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 13.0 13.3 13.3 -0.6 34.3 38.9 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 13.4 13.6 15.5 -1.2 26.5 31.6 14.0 14.9 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 11.2 11.5 11.9 -0.8 31.8 36.3 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 13.1 13.3 15.7 -1.1 28.7 33.7 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 7.1 7.4 10.2 -0.8 32.5 37.3 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 12.7 13.1 15.2 -0.8 33.0 37.6 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 12.6 12.7 15.3 -1.2 24.9 30.5 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 12.4 12.7 15.5 -1.0 29.6 34.5 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 12.6 13.0 13.9 -0.8 32.0 36.2 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 12.5 12.9 14.6 -0.7 33.5 38.4 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 11.8 12.0 12.5 -0.7 33.0 38.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 12.3 12.8 15.3 -0.7 34.7 39.0 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.3 14.6 -0.7 34.0 38.0 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 9.3 9.8 11.2 -0.8 32.0 36.2 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 13.2 13.5 15.9 -1.0 30.0 34.9 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------