***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 14.2 16.5 -0.9 34.2 37.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 13.3 13.4 16.3 -1.2 28.8 32.4 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.4 15.7 16.5 -0.8 34.2 37.4 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 10.2 10.3 14.6 -1.0 29.6 33.7 10.5 11.6 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 12.4 12.4 14.4 -0.9 30.8 34.6 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.6 11.7 12.7 -0.6 36.5 40.5 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 13.8 13.8 16.3 -1.2 28.2 32.1 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.1 6.8 12.5 -0.8 33.0 36.4 6.8 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 13.7 13.7 14.7 -0.9 31.7 35.2 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.9 13.7 13.2 -0.9 32.5 35.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 13.5 13.7 14.0 -0.7 34.5 37.9 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.6 13.4 -0.7 34.2 37.7 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.0 13.0 -0.7 34.7 38.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.2 14.7 -1.0 31.4 35.0 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 14.8 14.9 15.5 -0.9 31.5 35.2 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.0 13.9 13.7 -0.7 34.9 38.9 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 14.1 14.2 16.0 -1.2 28.3 31.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.4 12.5 -0.8 32.7 36.0 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 13.6 13.7 16.3 -1.1 30.2 33.7 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.4 10.7 -0.8 33.6 36.8 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.7 13.7 15.8 -0.8 33.6 36.9 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 13.3 13.3 15.9 -1.2 28.5 32.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 13.2 13.3 16.1 -1.0 31.6 35.0 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.1 13.7 14.5 -0.8 33.5 36.7 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.7 13.6 15.0 -0.9 32.4 36.1 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.7 13.0 -0.8 32.6 37.0 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.3 15.6 -0.9 32.9 36.6 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 12.6 12.6 15.0 -0.9 31.3 35.5 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.6 10.7 11.7 -0.9 32.5 35.8 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 13.8 13.9 16.5 -1.1 30.3 33.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------