***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 15.7 17.2 -0.5 38.1 40.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 14.2 14.5 17.1 -0.8 34.3 37.7 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 16.3 16.9 17.2 -0.5 39.6 42.1 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 11.6 12.0 15.5 -0.6 35.1 38.8 11.9 12.9 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 13.1 13.5 15.3 -0.6 36.4 39.8 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.2 13.0 13.8 -0.1 46.4 47.0 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 14.6 14.8 17.1 -0.8 33.0 36.5 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.3 7.8 13.4 -0.5 38.9 41.8 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.3 14.7 15.6 -0.6 37.2 40.5 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.6 14.0 -0.5 38.4 41.4 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 14.1 14.6 14.9 -0.4 40.5 42.8 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 12.0 12.6 14.4 -0.4 40.8 43.0 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.5 14.2 14.0 -0.3 43.2 44.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.3 15.4 -0.6 37.0 40.1 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.5 15.9 16.4 -0.5 38.1 41.0 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 14.4 15.1 14.7 -0.3 42.0 43.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.1 15.3 16.8 -0.8 34.1 37.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 12.6 13.2 13.3 -0.5 38.6 41.6 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 14.4 14.8 17.2 -0.7 36.3 39.4 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.6 9.1 11.6 -0.5 39.2 42.1 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.6 16.5 -0.5 37.9 41.0 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 14.1 14.4 16.8 -0.7 36.1 39.1 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.5 17.0 -0.6 38.0 40.8 14.3 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 14.4 15.0 15.3 -0.5 39.2 41.9 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.7 15.7 -0.5 37.1 40.4 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 13.2 13.5 13.8 -0.6 35.2 38.7 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.0 14.5 16.4 -0.5 37.6 40.6 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.7 16.0 -0.5 37.7 40.7 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 11.3 11.9 12.6 -0.4 39.8 42.4 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.1 17.3 -0.7 35.4 38.6 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------