***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 24.1 24.3 -1.9 26.1 27.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 23.9 24.2 24.0 -2.1 25.4 26.7 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 24.1 24.3 24.3 -1.9 26.9 28.4 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 17.7 17.7 22.2 -1.9 25.1 27.0 18.4 19.7 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 24.7 24.7 22.6 -1.9 25.6 27.4 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 23.2 23.1 20.0 -1.9 24.3 26.7 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 23.7 23.9 24.0 -2.1 25.4 26.7 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 12.5 12.5 20.3 -2.1 24.2 26.4 13.4 14.9 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 24.0 24.0 23.4 -1.9 26.2 28.0 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 24.0 24.0 21.4 -2.0 25.6 27.6 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 24.4 24.5 22.2 -1.9 25.4 27.5 25.2 26.6 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 23.5 23.5 21.3 -2.0 24.6 26.9 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 24.6 24.6 21.5 -1.8 26.1 28.4 25.3 26.7 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 24.0 24.2 22.9 -1.9 27.8 29.3 24.6 26.1 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 25.8 25.7 24.2 -1.7 25.8 27.8 26.3 27.6 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 25.2 25.3 22.1 -1.8 26.2 28.3 25.9 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 23.4 23.7 23.7 -2.0 27.0 28.1 24.2 25.6 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 23.3 23.3 20.5 -2.1 25.4 27.4 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 23.4 23.7 24.1 -2.0 26.2 27.4 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 18.6 18.5 18.1 -2.2 23.8 26.0 19.5 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 24.2 24.3 24.1 -2.0 25.7 27.4 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 24.0 24.2 23.8 -1.8 28.4 29.4 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 24.0 24.2 24.1 -1.9 27.7 29.1 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 23.6 23.7 22.6 -1.9 26.9 28.6 24.3 25.7 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 24.6 24.5 23.0 -2.0 24.5 26.1 25.3 26.7 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 24.1 24.1 20.6 -2.1 23.9 26.1 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 24.1 24.1 23.6 -2.0 25.4 26.8 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 25.7 25.7 23.0 -1.8 25.8 27.9 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 18.3 18.3 19.6 -2.1 25.1 27.2 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 23.8 24.0 24.2 -2.1 25.6 26.9 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------