***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 25.9 26.4 -1.1 35.0 38.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 25.7 25.9 26.1 -1.5 29.3 33.7 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 25.7 26.3 26.6 -1.0 35.5 39.4 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 18.7 19.2 25.2 -0.9 36.5 40.5 18.9 20.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 26.2 26.8 25.0 -0.9 37.0 41.0 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 27.1 26.2 23.3 -0.3 46.1 48.5 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 25.5 25.7 26.0 -1.5 29.0 33.3 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.0 23.3 -0.8 37.9 42.0 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 25.8 26.3 25.2 -1.0 36.5 40.5 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 27.7 26.0 23.8 -0.9 36.7 40.8 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 25.7 26.5 24.6 -0.7 40.2 43.6 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 27.1 25.8 24.5 -0.6 41.1 44.5 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.2 24.2 -0.4 44.3 47.0 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 25.6 25.9 24.6 -1.2 32.7 36.9 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 27.1 27.7 26.0 -0.8 38.6 42.1 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 28.9 27.6 24.6 -0.5 42.7 45.6 26.8 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 24.9 25.0 25.6 -1.7 26.6 31.1 25.5 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 24.8 25.3 23.0 -1.0 35.7 39.9 25.0 26.4 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 25.3 25.6 26.3 -1.4 31.0 35.2 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 22.8 21.1 21.0 -0.9 36.5 40.8 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 25.8 26.4 26.0 -1.0 36.3 40.2 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 25.6 25.7 25.7 -1.6 28.3 32.7 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 25.4 25.9 26.1 -1.2 32.8 37.0 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 25.2 25.7 24.7 -1.0 35.3 39.3 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 26.0 26.5 25.0 -1.0 35.4 39.3 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 27.9 26.6 24.1 -0.6 41.7 45.1 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 25.6 26.0 25.5 -1.1 34.8 38.6 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 27.3 27.8 25.7 -0.8 38.9 42.5 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 20.1 20.6 22.0 -1.0 35.8 40.1 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 25.5 25.8 26.4 -1.4 31.4 35.6 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------