***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 33.6 25.7 148.8 77.5 67.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 19.1 24.9 19.1 119.9 69.3 60.6 10.1 15.9 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 33.1 47.7 25.2 161.3 80.0 67.8 8.5 17.2 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 29.0 39.2 28.5 160.5 80.2 68.9 9.1 16.1 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 22.1 30.4 27.9 159.3 79.9 68.0 6.2 11.7 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 23.0 28.6 31.9 155.4 79.2 68.8 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 21.0 21.5 20.4 120.2 69.4 62.4 7.4 12.6 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 27.5 31.7 26.3 139.9 75.3 64.9 10.3 16.9 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 24.1 31.6 26.1 151.2 78.2 65.7 6.5 12.5 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 30.0 38.3 28.8 149.2 77.9 66.4 8.5 16.0 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 20.5 27.7 25.7 157.0 79.5 67.5 6.7 11.9 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 19.1 23.4 23.1 144.6 76.4 65.4 6.0 10.7 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 19.3 24.1 28.5 152.9 78.4 69.7 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 27.2 31.2 24.8 136.4 74.3 62.9 9.1 15.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 16.7 22.8 25.9 162.5 80.7 68.3 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 15.9 20.7 27.4 154.4 78.9 68.1 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 17.3 20.4 17.6 104.0 63.3 56.4 7.9 13.9 21.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 25.8 30.3 28.6 138.9 75.2 64.7 8.5 14.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.6 30.9 19.5 126.5 71.4 61.4 10.3 17.4 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 26.1 28.1 28.2 129.5 72.5 64.8 7.2 13.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 22.4 29.5 25.9 159.9 80.0 66.9 7.2 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 17.5 19.0 15.6 97.7 61.0 54.0 9.0 14.5 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 17.0 27.2 20.9 134.7 73.9 62.3 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 30.0 38.6 26.9 152.3 78.5 65.6 10.6 17.9 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 25.3 30.9 29.9 152.0 78.5 70.0 9.3 15.1 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 20.9 26.1 24.8 145.3 76.8 67.5 4.1 9.3 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 24.5 29.0 28.6 142.7 76.1 68.6 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 19.6 26.7 27.2 160.6 80.2 67.9 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 34.9 40.1 28.4 136.9 74.7 65.5 12.3 20.8 31.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 30.0 33.0 21.2 132.5 73.1 63.9 8.8 16.2 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------