***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 23.7 15.8 119.4 70.2 55.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 7.3 23.6 15.1 117.3 69.2 54.4 7.0 13.0 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.3 22.3 15.1 108.4 66.5 52.9 6.1 12.5 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.4 20.6 15.5 113.8 68.3 52.9 4.4 9.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.2 22.7 16.0 114.1 68.3 50.4 5.0 11.3 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.3 19.1 20.5 103.7 64.9 53.4 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 18.0 25.7 16.1 121.8 70.7 56.9 7.3 13.5 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.0 29.6 17.0 111.3 67.2 51.0 7.8 16.3 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.7 21.1 16.8 115.2 68.6 51.5 6.0 11.7 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.7 26.2 18.6 114.1 68.0 52.5 6.4 13.8 24.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.9 21.7 14.5 116.2 69.1 51.2 5.0 10.7 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.0 13.9 13.3 105.0 66.0 47.3 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.5 17.3 16.8 107.3 66.3 52.0 4.6 9.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 23.7 30.5 19.8 113.6 67.8 53.9 9.4 17.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.3 12.9 12.1 106.5 66.9 52.8 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 16.3 15.8 110.8 67.5 52.8 4.3 8.8 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.6 20.7 15.4 120.2 70.7 56.2 6.1 11.3 18.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.4 19.6 20.7 107.0 65.4 51.9 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.5 23.5 14.8 114.5 68.2 52.5 6.3 12.7 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.3 19.3 21.1 109.6 65.5 54.2 7.5 12.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.9 21.2 15.1 114.2 68.4 51.6 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.6 22.7 15.6 128.9 72.5 55.9 6.0 11.4 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.2 20.8 15.4 111.6 67.3 51.2 7.4 12.8 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.3 31.1 18.9 108.3 65.9 52.3 9.7 18.7 31.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.3 21.5 18.8 118.9 69.7 55.7 5.7 11.1 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.5 16.4 13.4 103.8 65.2 48.6 5.2 9.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 19.4 26.8 19.1 122.8 70.8 56.4 8.7 15.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.0 14.1 13.7 106.8 66.7 52.1 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.6 27.2 21.5 113.4 67.4 54.9 7.0 14.6 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 6.2 19.5 15.1 115.7 68.7 54.7 5.5 10.7 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------