***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 20.4 14.0 127.3 72.1 45.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 7.5 20.7 12.4 120.4 69.8 45.5 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 7.3 20.3 13.5 123.2 71.0 45.3 7.5 12.2 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.9 14.5 12.5 99.1 64.7 46.6 5.1 9.2 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.4 17.3 13.3 105.4 66.2 47.1 5.3 10.3 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.6 15.5 88.3 60.1 46.4 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 5.1 15.7 12.5 116.9 68.8 45.7 5.9 9.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.0 18.9 13.3 91.9 61.0 46.9 6.5 12.9 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.8 14.0 14.4 116.4 69.2 48.9 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.0 17.2 15.3 103.1 64.6 48.4 5.8 10.8 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.1 11.3 10.8 91.2 61.7 45.8 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.4 9.4 81.4 58.1 43.5 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.6 11.1 79.1 56.9 43.0 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 9.3 25.3 15.7 111.8 67.5 47.3 9.6 16.0 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.6 8.6 9.5 90.4 63.1 44.5 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.3 10.8 81.7 58.7 44.1 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.9 16.2 11.8 117.2 69.0 48.3 4.8 9.0 14.8 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 19.4 18.3 105.8 65.4 49.7 7.2 12.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 6.3 19.6 12.3 121.2 70.2 45.4 7.1 11.7 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 16.2 18.5 99.5 63.0 49.8 6.7 11.5 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.6 20.0 13.8 128.4 72.5 48.5 5.9 10.4 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.2 15.1 11.3 114.9 68.1 49.2 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 7.3 22.0 12.5 120.3 70.1 45.6 8.1 13.2 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 11.0 28.1 16.1 112.4 67.7 48.4 11.2 18.1 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.2 16.4 15.8 111.3 67.7 48.1 6.2 10.3 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.1 8.7 77.2 56.5 42.0 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 5.7 17.1 15.6 116.8 69.0 47.3 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.9 10.8 91.3 62.7 44.8 2.6 4.7 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.3 26.9 18.8 108.0 66.2 51.2 10.8 17.9 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 7.5 22.8 12.9 122.6 70.5 44.7 8.8 14.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------