***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 10.2 5.9 73.1 56.2 36.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 4.0 11.1 7.2 86.5 59.8 39.7 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 4.3 10.7 6.5 76.2 56.1 35.4 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.8 11.1 7.3 89.7 61.8 40.5 4.0 7.7 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.7 7.5 89.9 62.1 39.3 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.6 9.3 10.7 79.0 58.8 39.5 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 5.2 14.2 7.3 88.5 60.8 40.0 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.6 17.2 8.1 81.0 57.5 38.7 8.3 14.1 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.1 9.8 7.3 83.5 59.5 37.9 3.1 6.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 5.8 15.2 8.7 81.8 58.3 39.3 6.1 11.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.4 10.1 7.3 95.9 63.6 38.2 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.6 10.4 6.6 88.7 60.9 36.3 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 2.5 8.1 8.6 91.3 63.0 38.8 2.9 5.5 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.5 15.2 9.5 83.5 58.8 41.0 5.7 11.4 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.7 8.7 5.8 83.6 60.3 39.8 2.3 5.5 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.0 10.7 8.5 100.5 65.6 40.3 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.1 11.6 7.5 86.3 60.3 41.8 3.9 8.1 14.1 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.3 13.8 10.3 77.1 56.1 40.9 6.4 11.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 4.2 11.9 7.3 86.8 60.1 40.0 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 14.6 10.8 79.2 56.1 42.7 7.4 12.4 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.0 11.7 6.1 76.8 57.2 36.6 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.8 13.2 7.7 87.2 60.8 44.2 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 5.5 15.7 7.7 88.4 61.3 40.7 6.0 11.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.0 13.0 8.9 78.0 56.6 39.3 5.6 10.5 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.9 10.0 7.4 77.6 58.6 40.3 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 2.3 7.9 6.8 94.8 63.9 38.3 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 5.0 13.6 7.4 77.6 58.2 39.4 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.6 11.7 7.4 95.3 63.7 40.8 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.9 17.1 10.5 77.3 55.8 41.9 7.3 14.1 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 4.9 12.1 7.0 84.9 59.1 37.8 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------