***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 91.5 61.4 123.8 71.4 61.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 72.0 79.9 53.8 113.4 66.1 56.7 52.7 65.9 79.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 79.8 97.8 60.4 122.9 71.4 60.5 57.6 73.4 90.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 68.4 86.7 63.8 122.4 70.6 61.8 43.0 60.1 79.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 65.8 83.4 64.7 123.2 71.3 61.4 43.3 58.7 76.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 55.6 63.2 78.5 110.1 64.1 56.7 35.4 49.1 65.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 68.6 78.3 56.2 114.6 66.8 57.5 47.6 61.9 77.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 93.0 102.4 64.8 110.7 64.5 55.6 61.0 81.7 105.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 63.3 79.6 64.6 122.0 70.8 60.4 40.1 55.4 73.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 85.8 100.2 71.4 117.0 68.4 58.6 58.4 76.5 96.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 58.7 72.3 58.3 120.7 69.8 59.5 39.3 52.9 67.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 52.3 59.2 52.4 110.2 64.0 54.5 30.3 44.7 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 47.6 55.4 65.0 112.6 65.6 56.8 31.0 42.5 55.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 92.5 104.3 69.8 114.3 66.7 57.3 65.8 83.8 103.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 43.6 57.5 53.4 119.2 68.8 61.0 22.9 36.8 53.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 46.5 55.7 62.4 116.5 67.6 58.2 31.1 42.0 54.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 64.4 70.1 52.3 107.8 62.6 54.9 40.0 55.8 74.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 77.8 85.5 77.8 110.3 64.3 55.4 50.1 67.8 87.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 75.9 86.2 53.9 114.8 67.0 57.2 55.4 69.7 85.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 49.0 78.4 78.6 107.2 62.0 54.3 49.4 65.6 83.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 80.1 86.3 61.0 126.7 73.0 61.9 46.6 61.0 77.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 65.5 69.8 50.3 107.3 62.1 55.3 43.6 58.1 74.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 74.5 85.4 56.5 116.7 67.9 57.8 55.5 69.1 83.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 97.1 111.8 70.8 116.5 68.0 57.9 69.3 88.2 108.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 76.6 78.9 71.8 121.5 70.5 61.6 44.7 58.4 73.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 49.1 57.1 53.6 110.9 64.7 55.9 28.9 42.5 58.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 72.7 87.2 70.7 120.8 70.2 60.8 51.9 66.3 82.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 47.4 58.8 59.0 119.8 69.2 60.7 30.0 41.9 55.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 72.7 115.3 79.2 112.0 65.6 56.7 73.7 94.0 115.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 75.0 85.6 56.2 117.5 68.4 58.4 56.6 69.4 83.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------