***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 16.1 16.4 18.0 1.8 77.4 74.7 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 15.9 16.3 18.0 1.9 78.4 75.5 13.3 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 17.6 18.1 18.3 1.9 79.6 76.6 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 13.0 13.4 15.6 1.7 78.4 75.6 10.0 11.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 14.3 14.7 16.1 1.7 79.2 76.4 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 13.1 13.3 12.9 1.4 77.1 75.1 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 16.0 16.2 18.0 1.8 76.5 73.9 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 8.2 8.5 13.1 1.5 77.3 75.0 5.7 6.7 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 15.5 16.1 16.5 1.9 82.6 79.8 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 15.3 15.7 14.3 1.7 79.9 77.2 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 15.1 15.5 15.6 1.8 81.2 78.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 13.0 13.4 14.3 1.8 79.9 77.6 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 14.6 14.9 14.2 1.5 78.7 76.6 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.0 15.5 1.3 74.0 71.5 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 16.4 17.0 17.4 1.9 83.7 81.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 15.7 16.1 15.0 1.7 80.2 77.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 16.3 16.7 18.0 2.1 79.8 76.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 13.8 14.0 13.5 1.5 76.8 74.2 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 15.8 16.2 18.1 2.0 79.9 76.7 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 9.5 9.8 11.5 1.5 77.3 74.5 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 15.5 15.9 17.4 1.7 79.1 76.5 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 15.3 15.8 18.0 2.1 80.3 76.8 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 15.3 16.0 18.0 2.2 82.8 79.1 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 15.5 15.8 15.7 1.5 76.6 73.9 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 15.3 15.5 16.9 1.5 74.2 72.1 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 14.1 14.4 13.2 1.5 78.1 76.2 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 15.6 15.7 17.4 1.6 74.0 71.8 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 14.3 14.8 16.1 1.8 80.7 78.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 12.4 12.6 12.6 1.4 76.4 73.7 9.7 10.8 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 16.1 16.5 18.2 2.0 78.5 75.7 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------