***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.1 16.9 0.6 62.6 60.3 13.8 14.6 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 15.5 15.0 16.7 0.6 62.4 60.0 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 17.2 16.8 17.1 0.7 64.6 61.2 15.0 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.6 12.2 14.5 0.7 64.5 61.7 10.1 11.2 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 13.9 13.5 14.9 0.7 64.9 62.2 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.6 12.5 0.8 67.7 63.9 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.0 16.8 0.6 61.3 59.4 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 8.0 7.6 12.1 0.6 63.9 61.3 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 15.1 14.9 15.1 0.8 67.5 63.5 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 14.8 14.6 13.2 0.7 65.1 61.8 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 14.9 14.7 14.4 0.8 68.1 64.5 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 12.7 12.5 13.3 0.8 66.9 63.7 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 14.1 13.9 13.2 0.7 66.3 63.2 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 15.6 15.2 14.7 0.6 62.4 59.6 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 16.2 16.2 16.4 1.0 71.4 66.6 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 15.2 15.0 13.9 0.8 67.2 63.8 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 16.1 15.6 16.7 0.8 64.5 61.2 14.0 14.9 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.4 13.0 12.4 0.6 62.1 59.5 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 15.3 14.9 16.7 0.7 63.5 60.5 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.7 10.2 0.5 60.2 58.3 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 14.9 14.6 16.2 0.7 64.5 61.3 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 15.0 14.6 16.6 0.7 63.7 60.3 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 14.7 14.3 16.7 0.8 65.2 61.5 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 15.3 14.9 14.6 0.6 63.4 60.2 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.3 15.7 0.6 62.1 60.2 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.3 12.5 0.7 64.7 62.2 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.2 16.3 0.6 62.5 60.3 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 13.9 13.8 15.1 0.8 68.1 64.1 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 12.1 11.6 11.6 0.5 61.3 59.0 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.1 16.9 0.6 62.5 60.0 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------