***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.2 17.0 0.4 58.3 56.2 14.2 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.4 17.1 0.6 61.6 59.0 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.9 17.3 17.5 0.6 62.5 59.8 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.2 14.7 0.4 58.3 56.8 10.5 11.6 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.6 14.5 0.3 56.7 55.7 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.8 12.7 0.4 59.9 58.4 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.3 17.1 0.5 60.0 57.6 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.0 12.3 0.3 55.8 55.2 6.8 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 15.4 14.9 14.8 0.4 58.8 57.5 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.8 13.2 0.3 57.2 56.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.7 14.0 0.4 57.5 56.2 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.7 13.2 0.4 57.4 56.4 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.9 12.6 0.2 54.3 53.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.7 14.9 0.4 58.5 57.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.3 16.2 0.6 62.7 59.9 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.0 13.5 0.4 57.6 56.3 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.6 16.0 17.1 0.8 64.2 60.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.6 12.5 0.4 58.0 57.2 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.3 17.1 0.7 62.3 59.8 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.3 10.1 0.2 53.9 54.1 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.8 16.2 0.5 59.2 57.5 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.1 16.9 0.8 64.6 61.6 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 15.2 14.9 17.0 0.7 62.6 60.4 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.3 14.7 0.5 60.2 58.8 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.6 15.5 0.3 55.6 54.5 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.8 12.5 0.3 57.2 56.0 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.6 16.2 0.4 56.9 55.2 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.0 15.2 0.5 61.2 59.0 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.0 11.8 0.3 56.3 55.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.5 17.2 0.6 60.8 58.4 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------