***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.2 17.4 0.3 57.2 53.2 15.4 16.0 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.9 17.5 0.5 60.1 55.5 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.8 18.1 18.0 0.6 62.7 57.5 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.5 15.3 0.4 60.3 56.8 11.9 12.9 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.7 15.1 0.3 57.7 55.0 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 12.2 13.7 13.5 0.5 63.4 58.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.0 16.0 17.5 0.4 57.8 54.1 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.7 12.8 0.3 57.0 53.5 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.8 15.3 0.4 58.9 55.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.4 13.7 0.3 57.1 53.9 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.5 14.6 0.4 59.4 56.0 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.4 13.8 0.4 60.4 56.3 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.9 13.3 0.4 58.4 55.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.1 15.2 0.3 56.7 53.3 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.2 16.9 0.7 66.0 60.8 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.9 16.0 14.2 0.5 61.2 57.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.7 17.5 0.6 63.0 57.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.0 12.9 0.3 56.4 53.6 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.9 17.6 0.5 61.2 56.2 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.7 10.5 0.1 53.8 51.6 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.7 16.7 0.4 58.8 55.3 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.6 17.3 0.6 63.2 57.5 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.4 17.5 0.5 62.3 57.0 14.3 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.9 15.1 0.4 59.3 55.7 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.5 15.9 0.2 54.6 52.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.7 13.2 0.5 62.6 57.8 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.6 16.7 0.3 56.5 53.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.6 15.0 15.8 0.6 64.7 59.7 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.7 12.2 0.2 54.6 52.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.3 17.7 0.4 59.3 55.0 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------