***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 15.5 15.6 17.3 0.8 72.8 67.6 14.8 15.1 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 15.6 15.7 17.3 0.9 75.1 69.6 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 17.4 17.6 17.7 1.0 77.0 71.0 15.9 16.5 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.6 12.8 15.0 0.8 75.0 69.9 11.0 11.7 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.1 15.1 0.8 73.9 69.0 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 12.9 13.2 12.9 0.8 76.6 70.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 15.6 15.7 17.3 0.8 72.6 67.6 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 8.1 8.2 12.6 0.7 72.2 67.1 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 15.2 15.5 15.4 0.9 77.3 71.7 14.0 14.5 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 15.0 15.2 13.6 0.8 74.2 68.8 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.0 15.2 14.7 0.8 76.3 70.7 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 12.9 13.1 13.6 0.8 75.8 70.4 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 14.3 14.4 13.3 0.7 72.8 68.0 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 15.8 15.8 15.1 0.7 70.6 66.3 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 16.4 16.8 16.7 1.0 82.0 76.0 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.4 15.6 14.2 0.8 75.9 70.5 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 16.1 16.3 17.3 1.1 78.3 71.8 14.7 15.3 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.6 13.7 12.8 0.7 71.9 67.1 12.4 13.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 15.5 15.6 17.4 1.0 76.4 70.6 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 9.4 9.4 10.6 0.6 70.0 65.2 8.3 8.8 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.3 16.6 0.8 74.6 69.3 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 15.1 15.3 17.2 1.0 78.0 71.7 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 14.9 15.1 17.3 1.0 78.6 72.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 15.5 15.6 15.0 0.7 73.5 68.6 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 14.9 14.9 16.0 0.7 69.5 65.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 13.9 14.0 12.8 0.8 74.6 69.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 15.0 15.0 16.6 0.7 70.6 66.1 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 14.2 14.5 15.5 0.9 79.0 73.2 12.9 13.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 12.2 12.2 12.0 0.6 70.3 65.7 10.8 11.5 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 15.8 15.9 17.5 0.9 74.5 69.1 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------