***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 27.6 27.2 26.5 0.2 53.2 52.1 25.7 27.0 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 27.0 26.5 26.5 0.2 52.5 51.8 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.0 26.8 26.8 0.4 55.7 53.6 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 18.0 20.0 24.1 0.4 55.8 53.6 18.2 19.6 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 27.3 27.2 24.9 0.4 55.5 53.5 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.9 22.5 0.4 55.5 53.6 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.9 26.4 26.4 0.1 51.3 51.2 24.7 26.2 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.0 22.5 0.0 50.4 50.4 13.6 15.0 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 26.9 27.0 25.6 0.5 57.8 54.9 24.7 26.3 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.5 23.6 0.3 54.1 52.8 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.9 24.9 0.3 54.9 53.2 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.0 23.9 0.3 53.9 52.6 24.3 25.7 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 27.2 27.1 24.1 0.4 55.4 53.6 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.9 26.3 24.7 0.0 50.6 50.3 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 28.1 28.3 26.4 0.6 60.2 56.1 26.0 27.5 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 27.9 27.9 24.5 0.5 56.9 54.5 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 26.5 26.5 26.6 0.5 56.8 54.7 24.4 25.9 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.1 25.6 22.6 0.0 50.6 50.5 24.0 25.5 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.2 26.6 0.3 54.1 52.8 24.3 25.9 27.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 20.8 20.1 -0.2 46.9 48.3 19.6 21.1 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.8 26.3 0.3 54.6 52.8 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 26.9 26.8 26.4 0.5 56.8 54.8 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 26.8 26.8 26.6 0.5 56.7 54.4 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.0 24.8 0.2 52.2 51.4 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 27.1 26.7 25.0 0.1 52.1 51.5 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 26.8 26.9 23.6 0.7 59.5 56.3 24.9 26.2 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 26.7 26.3 25.7 0.2 52.9 52.1 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 25.6 28.1 25.0 0.5 58.3 55.0 25.9 27.4 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.7 21.7 -0.1 48.6 49.3 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.9 26.4 26.6 0.2 52.5 51.7 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------