***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 28.1 28.0 27.4 0.5 56.8 55.6 26.3 27.6 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 27.9 27.9 27.4 0.6 57.9 56.7 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 25.9 28.2 27.9 0.8 60.7 58.6 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 20.6 21.0 25.8 0.8 61.2 58.8 18.9 20.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.6 26.0 0.7 59.5 57.7 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 27.0 27.3 23.6 0.7 59.8 58.1 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 27.6 27.5 27.3 0.4 55.9 55.2 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.4 24.1 0.5 56.5 55.7 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.2 26.3 0.8 61.1 59.0 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.8 24.9 0.7 58.8 57.3 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.2 25.8 0.8 60.7 58.7 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 27.0 27.3 25.5 0.8 60.3 58.5 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 28.1 28.4 24.6 0.7 59.2 57.5 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.5 25.3 0.3 54.3 54.0 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 29.5 29.5 27.2 1.1 66.6 62.9 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.2 25.5 0.9 62.3 59.8 26.8 28.2 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 27.2 27.5 27.5 0.9 61.1 59.1 25.5 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.9 26.8 24.1 0.5 56.1 55.3 25.0 26.4 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 28.3 27.5 27.6 0.7 59.0 57.4 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.3 21.3 0.1 50.8 51.3 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.0 28.1 27.0 0.6 58.4 56.9 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 28.7 28.1 27.3 0.9 61.6 59.5 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 28.6 27.8 27.5 0.7 59.5 57.8 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.3 27.3 25.6 0.6 57.3 56.2 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.9 25.7 0.4 55.4 54.4 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 28.7 28.6 25.4 1.2 66.1 63.2 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 27.6 27.5 26.5 0.4 56.1 55.0 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 29.0 29.5 26.3 1.0 64.3 61.3 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.0 22.9 0.2 53.1 53.0 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 27.7 27.7 27.4 0.5 57.3 56.2 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------