***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 28.3 28.2 27.5 0.8 66.6 61.5 27.0 27.6 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.8 27.6 0.8 65.8 61.6 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 28.1 28.2 27.9 1.0 70.9 64.8 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 21.2 21.3 25.4 0.9 70.5 64.3 19.5 20.3 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 28.6 28.7 26.0 0.9 69.4 63.5 26.8 27.7 28.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 26.5 27.1 23.5 0.8 68.6 63.3 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.2 27.6 27.4 0.7 64.0 60.4 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.3 23.8 0.6 64.1 60.0 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 28.1 28.4 26.6 1.1 73.4 66.5 26.2 27.1 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 27.2 27.9 24.8 0.9 68.7 63.2 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 28.3 28.4 26.0 0.9 70.4 64.5 26.4 27.3 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 26.7 27.4 25.2 0.9 69.1 63.8 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 27.8 28.6 25.1 0.9 69.8 63.9 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 27.8 27.6 25.8 0.7 65.6 61.4 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 29.2 29.6 27.4 1.2 76.9 69.7 27.5 28.2 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 29.1 29.4 25.6 1.0 72.4 65.8 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 27.4 27.5 27.6 1.1 71.3 66.1 25.6 26.5 27.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 26.6 27.0 23.9 0.7 65.1 60.7 25.4 26.2 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 27.5 27.5 27.7 0.9 68.0 63.1 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 22.2 22.3 21.3 0.4 58.1 55.8 21.0 21.9 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 28.2 28.3 27.3 0.9 68.9 63.2 26.4 27.2 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 27.9 28.1 27.5 1.1 72.4 66.8 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 27.9 28.0 27.7 1.1 71.3 65.4 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 27.5 27.4 25.9 0.8 67.5 62.5 25.7 26.6 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.7 28.1 26.0 0.7 64.6 60.0 26.5 27.3 28.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 28.0 28.3 24.9 1.2 74.8 68.3 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 27.2 27.6 26.7 0.7 65.7 61.0 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 29.2 29.5 26.2 1.1 74.1 67.3 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.2 22.9 0.6 62.5 59.1 20.6 21.5 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 27.2 27.7 27.6 0.8 65.8 61.4 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------