***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.6 9.1 13.8 62.0 44.1 36.3 5.7 11.3 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 9.3 11.9 10.7 53.0 38.7 31.9 10.1 15.9 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 8.6 12.1 11.6 55.6 40.8 33.4 8.5 17.2 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.6 12.8 12.7 60.0 42.9 37.5 9.1 16.1 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.7 9.1 12.7 59.9 43.1 37.6 6.2 11.7 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.6 11.4 17.4 76.9 49.6 43.2 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 7.5 9.6 11.2 55.2 40.7 34.0 7.4 12.6 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.6 13.1 16.2 62.6 40.8 36.8 10.3 16.9 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.0 8.2 12.0 53.7 38.4 33.7 6.5 12.5 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.0 10.4 15.6 56.7 37.8 33.9 8.5 16.0 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.9 9.6 12.5 59.9 43.0 37.4 6.7 11.9 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.3 9.3 12.9 65.3 45.4 39.3 6.0 10.7 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.5 8.1 13.1 63.2 45.0 37.7 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 8.0 8.8 13.1 44.7 32.1 27.5 9.1 15.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.2 9.0 13.4 77.4 54.5 45.0 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.1 7.5 12.4 62.8 44.3 38.4 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 7.2 10.2 10.2 54.2 40.3 33.2 7.9 13.9 21.9 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 8.1 8.7 15.2 53.4 33.4 30.8 8.5 14.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 9.4 12.1 10.8 52.2 37.6 31.2 10.3 17.4 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.4 7.9 15.3 57.3 35.5 33.2 7.2 13.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 7.1 9.4 12.0 56.3 40.7 34.8 7.2 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 8.4 10.8 10.0 52.8 38.7 31.7 9.0 14.5 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 6.9 8.3 11.0 50.2 36.5 30.8 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 9.8 10.9 12.6 49.2 33.9 29.8 10.6 17.9 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 9.2 12.7 13.7 58.9 43.3 36.8 9.3 15.1 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.2 13.7 74.5 52.0 43.7 4.1 9.3 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.2 10.9 14.9 63.3 45.2 38.2 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.4 9.9 14.5 74.2 50.7 42.7 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 11.4 11.9 14.6 51.8 32.0 29.8 12.3 20.8 31.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.5 11.5 11.2 54.0 39.5 32.9 8.8 16.2 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------