***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 19.9 18.3 109.1 66.3 52.3 5.9 11.5 19.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.7 18.7 14.5 94.9 61.5 49.6 7.0 13.0 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.7 16.4 93.3 59.8 49.9 6.1 12.5 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.4 21.0 18.9 117.2 68.7 56.2 4.4 9.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.5 21.4 18.3 111.1 66.6 54.4 5.0 11.3 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 15.1 22.3 21.5 119.8 69.5 59.7 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 18.0 19.8 14.7 95.5 62.1 50.2 7.3 13.5 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.8 30.5 19.9 115.1 67.9 56.6 7.8 16.3 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.8 17.4 17.9 100.2 62.4 50.7 6.0 11.7 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 19.7 23.0 19.7 104.3 64.2 53.4 6.4 13.8 24.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.5 19.4 18.3 110.7 65.9 54.6 5.0 10.7 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.1 14.8 17.3 115.3 67.8 56.4 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.5 20.4 20.3 124.2 71.0 59.7 4.6 9.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.2 23.3 20.4 91.0 58.9 49.2 9.4 17.5 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.4 14.6 16.6 120.1 70.1 55.7 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.5 16.0 18.1 113.7 67.0 55.5 4.3 8.8 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 6.2 17.0 15.2 100.9 64.0 49.7 6.1 11.3 18.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.4 16.4 20.5 96.1 60.3 52.1 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.0 14.6 92.1 60.3 49.1 6.3 12.7 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.3 19.7 22.4 111.3 66.0 55.3 7.5 12.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.6 17.6 17.6 99.4 62.4 50.2 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.8 15.8 14.7 92.7 60.8 48.0 6.0 11.4 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.3 15.6 89.0 58.6 47.4 7.4 12.8 20.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.0 23.6 18.4 88.4 57.1 49.8 9.7 18.7 31.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.1 21.3 22.7 118.6 69.3 55.8 5.7 11.1 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.7 18.9 17.0 121.4 69.6 55.2 5.2 9.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 19.4 24.4 21.5 113.6 67.6 53.7 8.7 15.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.8 15.4 17.3 119.2 69.6 55.8 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.9 22.4 22.6 101.3 62.0 53.3 7.0 14.6 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.5 15.2 14.9 93.7 60.9 49.6 5.5 10.7 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------