***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.1 16.3 13.5 99.1 64.6 49.3 5.6 10.4 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.6 13.1 12.7 100.7 65.3 49.6 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.4 13.4 13.4 96.3 63.9 47.3 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.5 11.6 12.3 92.6 63.0 47.5 4.0 7.7 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.5 9.6 11.6 88.3 61.3 45.2 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.0 11.5 78.5 57.7 43.8 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 5.7 15.7 12.5 97.3 64.2 48.3 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.7 19.1 13.7 90.5 61.1 47.8 8.3 14.1 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.8 10.9 13.3 92.3 62.3 45.9 3.1 6.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.9 16.3 15.2 89.6 60.7 46.9 6.1 11.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.8 10.0 82.5 59.1 44.5 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.4 10.6 10.3 88.1 61.5 46.2 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.5 10.6 83.9 60.3 43.9 2.9 5.5 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.5 19.4 20.6 103.6 66.1 51.1 5.7 11.4 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.7 8.7 9.1 80.4 60.2 44.3 2.3 5.5 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.6 10.0 81.2 59.3 43.3 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.1 12.6 11.8 92.6 62.6 47.2 3.9 8.1 14.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.8 17.1 19.1 97.5 63.3 49.6 6.4 11.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.7 14.3 13.4 103.6 66.3 49.9 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.9 17.1 17.4 97.3 62.3 50.3 7.4 12.4 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.9 14.3 13.1 92.7 63.0 45.6 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.2 15.3 13.6 103.5 65.8 49.9 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.5 18.1 14.7 101.8 66.0 48.6 6.0 11.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.0 17.3 18.3 104.2 66.0 50.9 5.6 10.5 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.6 14.1 94.9 63.6 47.9 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.9 7.6 80.4 59.5 42.6 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.2 16.5 14.5 98.9 64.5 49.6 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.9 10.7 11.0 85.7 61.3 45.2 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.1 21.5 19.3 97.8 62.9 50.0 7.3 14.1 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.1 14.2 13.1 102.1 65.6 50.0 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------