***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 67.7 59.0 58.5 87.6 48.7 44.6 45.8 60.0 75.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 72.5 60.3 49.5 79.6 42.8 41.1 52.7 65.9 79.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 80.9 68.7 54.5 82.3 44.8 42.4 57.6 73.4 90.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 42.7 60.1 56.4 90.0 49.9 46.4 43.0 60.1 79.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 66.8 58.3 56.5 89.6 49.5 46.2 43.3 58.7 76.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 56.0 48.7 64.5 91.8 49.3 45.0 35.4 49.1 65.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 68.6 56.0 50.1 80.3 43.0 41.7 47.6 61.9 77.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 93.0 80.4 65.9 90.6 48.7 45.7 61.0 81.7 105.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 39.2 52.1 59.0 86.2 46.5 43.9 40.1 55.4 73.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 86.6 72.3 68.4 87.1 46.1 43.8 58.4 76.5 96.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 60.3 51.3 53.2 88.4 48.0 45.0 39.3 52.9 67.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 53.0 44.7 52.4 90.5 50.1 46.2 30.3 44.7 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 30.9 42.9 56.5 90.9 50.7 45.5 31.0 42.5 55.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 64.0 76.1 74.4 81.7 42.8 40.6 65.8 83.8 103.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 23.9 38.2 47.2 89.3 51.6 46.0 22.9 36.8 53.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 30.8 40.7 52.4 88.2 48.1 44.4 31.1 42.0 54.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 65.2 49.4 49.1 80.5 43.3 41.2 40.0 55.8 74.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 77.4 64.4 76.8 88.3 46.8 44.3 50.1 67.8 87.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 77.4 64.0 51.2 80.6 43.5 41.3 55.4 69.7 85.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 74.0 63.9 75.1 91.6 48.6 45.8 49.4 65.6 83.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 45.9 58.7 57.4 86.2 47.1 44.1 46.6 61.0 77.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 41.2 52.8 51.7 81.8 44.1 41.2 43.6 58.1 74.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 53.8 63.9 55.0 80.7 43.6 40.8 55.5 69.1 83.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 67.9 82.6 68.2 84.7 45.2 42.8 69.3 88.2 108.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 44.2 58.8 64.9 90.3 50.4 46.4 44.7 58.4 73.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 50.5 43.9 47.9 91.9 51.6 45.1 28.9 42.5 58.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 74.0 66.3 65.2 89.8 50.1 46.0 51.9 66.3 82.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 48.8 43.7 53.8 92.5 52.3 47.0 30.0 41.9 55.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 104.0 90.0 78.6 88.8 46.8 44.4 73.7 94.0 115.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 75.6 64.5 51.2 80.6 43.7 41.6 56.6 69.4 83.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------