***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 16.2 17.2 19.0 3.0 91.0 89.9 14.1 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 16.1 17.2 18.7 2.8 89.6 88.5 13.2 14.3 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 17.8 18.9 18.9 2.7 89.8 88.6 15.0 16.0 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 13.1 14.2 16.1 2.5 88.0 87.0 9.9 11.1 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 14.6 15.6 16.8 2.7 90.7 89.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 13.4 14.1 13.4 2.2 88.0 86.9 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 16.1 17.2 18.9 2.9 89.8 88.7 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 8.3 8.8 13.2 1.9 82.8 81.8 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.7 16.9 17.0 2.7 92.1 91.1 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 15.5 16.2 14.6 2.3 86.3 85.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 15.3 16.2 16.0 2.5 89.5 88.6 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 13.2 13.7 14.4 2.1 84.3 83.5 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 14.8 15.8 14.9 2.5 91.3 90.5 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 16.1 17.2 16.5 2.6 90.3 88.9 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.5 17.9 17.9 2.7 93.2 92.5 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 15.9 16.9 15.5 2.4 89.7 88.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 16.4 17.4 18.5 2.8 89.6 88.5 13.8 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 14.0 14.6 13.9 2.2 86.2 85.1 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 15.9 17.0 18.8 2.9 90.3 89.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 9.7 10.1 11.7 2.0 83.4 82.5 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 15.8 17.0 18.1 2.7 91.3 90.3 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 15.5 16.5 18.6 2.9 90.5 89.4 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 15.5 16.7 18.7 3.0 91.8 90.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 15.8 17.0 16.4 2.5 89.7 88.6 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 15.6 16.6 17.8 2.7 89.0 88.1 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 14.3 15.0 13.6 2.2 87.9 87.1 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 15.8 17.1 18.5 2.9 90.3 89.4 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 14.5 15.4 16.5 2.4 89.2 88.4 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 12.6 13.3 13.0 2.1 84.9 83.7 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 16.3 17.4 19.0 2.9 89.8 88.6 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------