***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 15.7 16.2 18.4 1.9 93.2 87.3 14.8 15.1 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 15.8 17.0 18.3 1.9 92.7 86.7 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 17.6 18.9 18.6 1.9 94.1 88.2 15.9 16.6 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 12.8 13.9 15.7 1.6 91.3 85.4 11.1 11.8 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 14.2 15.2 16.0 1.7 92.8 87.0 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 13.2 14.1 13.6 1.5 93.1 87.5 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 15.8 16.8 18.4 1.9 92.5 86.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 8.3 9.1 13.1 1.4 88.5 82.7 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 15.5 16.6 16.2 1.8 94.6 89.0 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 15.2 16.0 14.3 1.5 90.9 85.0 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 15.2 16.1 15.3 1.6 92.3 86.5 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 13.1 13.8 14.1 1.5 89.7 84.2 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 14.6 15.5 14.1 1.6 93.1 87.6 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 16.0 17.2 16.1 1.8 94.0 87.7 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 16.6 17.8 17.3 1.7 94.7 89.2 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 15.6 16.7 14.8 1.6 92.4 86.8 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 16.2 17.1 18.1 1.9 92.0 86.2 14.7 15.3 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 13.9 14.7 13.5 1.4 90.7 84.7 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 15.6 16.7 18.3 2.0 93.6 87.8 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 9.7 10.3 11.2 1.3 88.2 82.2 8.4 8.9 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 15.4 16.4 17.5 1.8 93.8 88.0 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 15.3 16.2 18.1 2.0 93.1 87.4 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 15.1 16.1 18.3 2.1 95.2 89.7 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 15.7 17.0 15.9 1.7 93.5 87.5 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 15.2 16.0 16.9 1.6 90.9 85.3 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 14.1 14.9 13.5 1.5 92.3 86.3 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 15.2 16.2 17.6 1.7 91.9 86.3 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 14.4 15.3 16.1 1.6 92.5 86.8 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 12.4 13.3 12.7 1.4 89.7 83.5 10.9 11.5 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 16.0 17.1 18.5 1.9 93.0 87.1 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------