***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 28.8 29.6 28.4 2.6 81.4 78.6 25.3 26.7 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 27.8 28.5 28.3 2.4 77.4 75.3 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 28.0 28.7 28.3 2.5 78.7 76.2 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 21.0 21.4 24.6 1.7 73.3 71.3 18.2 19.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 28.4 28.9 26.1 2.1 75.8 73.5 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 25.6 26.7 22.9 1.3 67.7 66.1 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 27.6 28.1 28.3 2.4 77.5 75.5 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 15.1 16.0 22.8 1.1 64.2 63.0 13.3 14.8 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 27.9 28.7 27.2 2.3 78.6 76.1 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 27.3 27.6 24.5 1.6 70.1 68.3 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 28.1 28.4 26.2 1.9 73.2 71.2 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 26.9 27.0 24.3 1.5 69.1 67.5 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 28.3 28.6 25.5 1.9 73.3 71.3 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 27.3 27.7 26.3 1.9 73.0 70.9 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 28.8 29.1 27.2 1.6 73.1 71.0 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 28.9 29.2 25.5 1.8 73.0 71.0 25.7 27.1 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 27.4 27.8 28.0 2.5 77.5 75.8 24.0 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 25.6 26.5 23.1 1.2 64.5 63.1 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 27.4 28.1 28.4 2.5 78.8 76.5 24.2 25.5 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 21.1 21.8 20.5 0.8 59.5 58.7 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 28.1 28.7 28.0 2.3 77.5 75.1 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 27.9 28.5 28.0 2.7 79.8 77.8 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 28.0 28.8 28.4 2.8 81.2 78.5 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 27.0 27.2 26.1 1.7 70.6 68.8 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 28.3 28.8 26.9 2.2 77.3 75.2 25.1 26.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 27.5 27.7 23.6 1.5 68.9 67.3 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 27.8 28.4 27.5 2.3 78.5 76.2 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 28.8 29.1 25.6 1.5 71.4 69.3 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 20.8 21.6 22.1 0.9 61.1 60.1 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 27.5 28.2 28.4 2.4 78.1 75.8 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------