***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 29.3 30.7 29.8 2.9 86.4 76.1 26.5 27.7 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 29.1 30.5 30.0 3.1 87.7 77.0 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 29.1 30.7 30.2 3.0 86.9 76.2 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 21.8 22.7 27.3 2.2 80.1 71.9 19.1 20.3 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.7 27.8 2.4 81.7 72.7 26.6 28.0 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 28.0 28.9 25.0 2.0 78.6 71.4 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 28.9 30.3 29.9 3.0 87.2 76.6 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 17.4 18.2 25.6 2.0 77.2 69.4 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 29.1 30.5 28.3 2.7 84.1 74.3 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 28.7 29.8 26.6 2.4 80.7 71.8 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 29.1 30.1 27.3 2.3 80.2 71.6 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 28.0 28.9 26.9 2.1 78.2 70.3 25.4 26.6 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 29.4 30.1 26.1 2.1 77.8 70.4 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 28.6 29.7 27.7 2.6 82.9 73.1 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 29.9 30.9 28.5 2.4 82.6 74.0 27.3 28.5 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.9 26.9 2.2 79.3 71.4 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 28.4 29.9 29.8 3.1 87.5 76.5 25.8 26.9 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 27.9 28.9 25.9 2.2 79.1 70.6 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 28.6 30.1 30.1 3.2 88.1 77.3 26.1 27.2 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.8 24.3 23.0 1.8 74.2 67.4 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 29.2 30.5 29.1 2.7 83.9 74.2 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 29.0 30.5 29.7 3.2 88.1 77.2 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 28.8 30.6 30.1 3.2 88.2 77.3 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 28.3 29.5 27.7 2.5 82.1 72.6 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 29.2 30.2 27.8 2.4 82.4 73.5 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 29.0 30.1 26.6 2.4 81.1 73.2 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 28.8 30.0 28.7 2.6 84.2 74.7 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 29.9 30.7 27.6 2.2 79.6 71.7 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 23.4 24.0 24.7 2.0 76.3 68.6 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 29.0 30.4 30.0 3.1 87.4 76.8 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------