***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 28.6 29.5 28.9 2.3 89.9 82.4 27.0 27.6 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 28.3 29.3 29.0 2.4 88.7 82.0 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 28.4 29.6 29.0 2.3 89.3 82.0 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 21.4 22.2 26.0 1.7 83.9 76.4 19.5 20.3 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 28.9 29.9 26.8 1.8 85.7 78.1 26.8 27.7 28.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 27.3 27.9 23.9 1.4 81.3 74.2 25.4 26.3 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 28.1 29.1 28.9 2.4 88.4 81.8 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 16.7 17.1 24.2 1.3 77.6 71.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 28.5 29.7 27.5 2.1 88.5 80.9 26.2 27.1 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 28.1 28.8 25.4 1.7 82.7 75.5 26.1 27.0 27.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 28.5 29.3 26.5 1.7 83.7 76.3 26.4 27.3 28.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 27.5 28.1 25.6 1.5 80.2 73.2 25.6 26.5 27.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 28.7 29.4 25.6 1.6 82.2 75.1 26.6 27.5 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 28.0 28.9 26.9 2.0 86.6 78.7 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 29.3 30.3 27.8 1.8 86.4 78.5 27.5 28.3 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 29.3 30.2 26.0 1.7 83.3 75.9 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 27.7 28.8 28.8 2.5 88.6 82.1 25.7 26.5 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 27.3 27.9 24.5 1.5 79.4 72.6 25.4 26.3 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 27.9 29.0 29.1 2.5 89.7 82.8 25.9 26.7 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 22.9 23.2 21.8 1.0 72.9 67.2 21.0 21.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 28.6 29.7 28.3 2.1 87.8 80.4 26.4 27.3 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 28.2 29.5 28.7 2.6 90.3 83.4 26.1 27.0 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 28.2 29.5 29.1 2.6 91.4 83.9 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 27.7 28.5 26.7 1.8 84.5 77.0 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 28.6 29.6 27.1 1.9 86.5 79.2 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 28.1 28.9 25.1 1.7 82.7 75.5 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 28.0 29.0 27.9 2.1 87.6 80.6 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 29.4 30.2 26.5 1.6 83.2 75.4 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 22.6 23.0 23.4 1.2 75.7 69.4 20.6 21.6 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 28.1 29.1 29.0 2.4 88.7 81.8 26.2 26.9 27.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------