***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 26.4 44.4 34.5 202.5 87.1 77.2 5.4 11.4 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 25.0 34.0 29.3 168.7 81.4 70.9 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 38.6 64.5 33.5 200.8 86.8 74.5 8.6 17.4 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 36.3 63.6 38.1 228.3 90.4 80.0 9.7 17.5 28.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 25.1 38.2 32.8 197.1 86.3 75.5 6.6 12.0 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 28.9 42.8 36.2 183.0 85.0 78.5 6.1 12.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 23.0 29.8 28.2 161.0 79.8 69.8 6.3 11.7 19.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 33.1 47.8 41.2 188.9 85.8 75.9 10.2 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 31.5 48.6 35.1 197.1 86.3 77.0 8.0 15.0 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 38.5 56.1 41.1 191.0 86.0 75.5 11.5 19.9 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 25.2 36.9 33.1 197.1 86.0 74.8 7.8 13.2 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 20.9 32.7 33.0 192.3 85.8 74.6 5.8 10.5 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 23.2 35.2 32.9 186.1 84.5 72.7 5.9 11.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 35.1 54.8 41.7 188.2 85.5 72.5 10.2 18.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 20.8 46.8 37.8 276.5 92.8 82.1 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 18.6 29.3 31.1 195.0 86.1 75.0 5.0 9.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 19.9 25.8 26.7 149.0 77.3 65.7 6.1 11.3 18.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 32.2 48.0 41.6 183.4 85.7 75.2 8.3 15.4 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 31.8 47.2 31.4 184.0 84.1 72.1 9.0 16.4 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 33.6 52.0 40.8 180.0 84.9 76.0 6.6 14.1 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 25.8 40.6 35.3 209.3 88.0 78.2 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 22.4 29.8 28.6 159.9 79.4 65.3 7.0 12.6 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 27.0 45.2 34.1 201.9 87.3 74.2 6.7 12.8 21.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 41.0 60.2 38.0 191.7 86.2 73.9 13.2 22.2 33.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 29.0 43.5 35.8 200.7 86.7 78.5 7.4 13.5 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 25.4 45.8 35.8 224.7 89.1 79.7 5.3 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 29.6 45.5 35.9 195.8 86.2 77.5 7.0 13.5 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 25.4 49.1 37.9 247.6 91.2 80.8 6.2 11.8 19.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 38.5 55.6 41.1 177.6 84.6 74.5 11.0 19.8 31.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 32.3 48.0 31.3 184.3 84.0 72.8 7.6 15.3 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------